While Prime Minister Modi’s initial reluctance to join other major democracies in forcefully condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine may seem odd, it is consistent with a pluralistic vision for Eurasia.
Written By; Foreign Analysis – Aug 13, 2023
If India’s stance of not condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set it apart from major democracies, Prime Minister Modi’s presence alongside Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan painted an even more jarring picture for some. However, New Delhi’s stance on Russia and its presence in the SCO are informed by its continental interests. India’s security and economic interests are invariably tied to developments in Central Asia and its extended neighborhood containing Afghanistan and Iran. Not unlike its goals in the Indo-Pacific, India as an emerging great power has a stake in shaping a balanced, inclusive, and cooperative order in Eurasia.
India shares the concerns of Central Asian republics (CARs) about terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan. In the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal from the country, it has sought to play a proactive role in coordinating a regional approach to deal with shared challenges.
For example, last December, India hosted national security advisors from five Central Asian countries, Russia, and Iran at the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue for close consultation and coordination on Afghanistan. While the Russian-Chinese “no limits partnership” is based on their shared quest for a post-Western Eurasian order, India, CARs, and even Iran are seeking an inclusive and balanced Eurasian continent where they can maintain their strategic autonomy and raise their geoeconomic status, while benefiting from multilateral cooperation.
Iran, notwithstanding its deepening partnership with Russia and China, sees the SCO as a vehicle for “Asian multilateralism” rather than an organization dominated by a regional or extra-regional hegemon. For India, it is important that Iran does not enter into the Chinese fold and remains an independent strategic actor in Eurasia. For their part, CARs are not only concerned about Russia’s revanchism, but they are also carefully watching the emerging Russia-China entente and are committed to expanding ties with the European Union (EU) and India.
Frederick Starr has rightly noted that the issue of connectivity will determine the economic orientation of the rising powers of Central Asia. The disruption of traditional logistic routes by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia has given a new impetus to implement alternative connectivity corridors linking Central Asia with Europe and South Asia in the north-south direction. To neutralize Pakistan’s obstruction of India’s overland connectivity, India continues to develop Iran’s Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman as an indispensable fulcrum for connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia. It has been pushing to include Chabahar within the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), as an eastern branch to reach Central Asia.