The enduring tensions between China and Taiwan have been marked by historical grievances and differing political aspirations. While China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunited with the mainland, Taiwan sees itself as distinct. In his year-end address, China’s president, Xi Jinping, vowed reunification, arguing that it is inevitable. The growing friction between China and Taiwan is of great concern, not only for the stability of the region but raises global concerns as well. Countries are aligning themselves with one side, further adding to the complexity of the situation. 

In August, Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, stated that more than 170 countries support China, which overwhelmingly outnumbers the few that support Taiwan. Last month, Nauru, a small island country in Oceania, announced it was restoring diplomatic ties with China. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the move, which came two days after the nation’s presidential election. Nauru’s sudden severing of ties with Taiwan leaves the country with just twelve diplomatic allies. Notably, this is not the first instance of Nauru switching its alliance from Taiwan to China. In 2002, Nauru made a similar move before reestablishing ties once again with Taiwan three years later.  

Nauru, a country that was once rich in phosphate, had depended primarily on the export of this mineral, but after years of mining, the resource has been exhausted. As a result, Nauru must depend on foreign aid. While China’s aid to the Pacific is declining, it still has contributed a significant amount of money to Nauru. According to the latest figures from the Lowry Institute, China was Nauru’s eighth largest donor in 2020, with $223.70 million USD, and Nauru’s sixth largest donor in 2021, with $217.46 million USD. With the restoration of ties with China, how this shift will impact Nauru’s economic development remains to be seen.  

China has loaned more than $1 trillion USD to developing countries across the world to finance roads, railways, airports, and other projects. With this much-needed infrastructure, developing nations like Nauru might be tempted to secure loans from China and then feel pressure to adopt China’s stance on Taiwan. Last year, China’s Belt and Road Initiative turned ten. However, the momentum behind this development strategy has been slowing down for reasons that include repercussions from the pandemic and China’s economy slowing down. If this trend persists, China may be less influential in persuading other countries to embrace its position on Taiwan. 

As of now, the situation continues to unfold and is characterized by the interplay of power dynamics and economic intricacies. While some countries may feel they must choose between China and Taiwan, the Taiwanese are choosing between war and peace. Xi Jinping has stated that force would be used if Taiwan declares its independence. Taiwan faces a delicate situation, balancing its desire for international recognition with the risk of military confrontation with China. Developing nations, such as Nauru, may face the challenge of balancing the progress of their country with aligning with China’s position on Taiwan.