Since the Industrial Revolution during the 18th and 19th centuries Middle East  has played an indispensable role in world history because of its natural resources. At the same time this region has strategic straits, trade roads and cultural heritage that is a common value of all monolithic religions. After the dismantlement of the Ottoman Empire this region has been a center of great power rivalry and hegemony. A big power vacuum occurred from North Africa to the Middle East after World War I and according to the Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916) this geographic region has been divided between two dominant powers of world politics: Britain and France.

Generally we can mention three regional milestones about the Middle East from past to present and one of them is “Sykes-Picot order”. This model or order presents a colonial perspective and can be referred to as the “early era” of modern Middle East history. For example; Egypt was under British occupation until the 1940s and at the same time Syria became an independent country in 1946 . During the Sykes Picot system/order also Cold War conditions affected the region and world in the context of some serious crises, wars and conflicts. Nearly all of the world-wide crises in the Cold War era occurred in the Middle East and great power competition was one of the security problems of this region. Suez Canal Crisis (1956), U-2 Crisis, Syrian Crisis, Iran Revolution (1979), Arab-Israeli Wars (1948-1949, 1967 and 1973), Afghanistan War (1979) are only a few of these problems. After  1979 a new regional geopolitical landscape was set up by out-of-region powers and was applied with interactive diplomatic relations. Camp David Accords represents an important turning point for regional actors and removed the blockade between Arab countries by broke off Egypt. With this accords Enver Sedat, Egyptian leader, accepted Israel as an independent state and this was a first decamping between Arab states. Referring this agreement it can be called second milestone or “Camp David order” for the Middle East.

In 1991 when the ideological war between two camp (West/East) finished with Kuwait Crisis President George H. W. Bush was giving “new world order message” from Iraq and Middle East to whole world. But unfortunately the new world order didn’t bring a perpetual peace, order or stability to the Middle East. We can say the “beginning of the end” for Iraq War (2003) for the region and after Iraq occupation proxy wars expanded over the all regional territory. Fortunately when the public movements started in some countries (e.g. Tunisia, Syria, Libya and Egypt) also a real nightmare has already begun for the region. So the third milestone of the region security order is the Arab revolutions.

Arab revolutions or Arab awakening backed by Western actors (USA+EU) and explained with theoretical paradigms as Huntingtons’ democratization waves theory but at the end of the public uprisings many actors called it “a winter more than a spring”. Again some actors called this public uprisings in some countries in 2010 and 2011 as “Arab Spring” referring to the Prague Spring (in 1968). Now at this point, actually the Middle East has regional and also global crises and conflict areas such as Syria, Yemen and Libya, lots of terrorist organizations and non-state military actors like ISIS, al-Qaeda, PKK/YPG/PYD and Boko-Haram. Humanitarian crises, unstability, conflict and war is now a routine for the Middle East especially in Yemen, Syria and Libya. Today as you know, we are experiencing a catastrophic and massacrance in Gaza/Palestine.

On 7 October (2023) after the “Aqsa Flood Operation” Israel started a mass murder towards Gaza and we can say this new Israeli-Hamas war has comprehensive regional war potential expanding with local and non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Houtis etc. Based on this, the fourth and new turning point of the Middle East’s regional security order will be shaped according to the global and regional results of the current war. Besides major regional and global actors (US, Russia, China, EU countries, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia etc.) will determine the fate of the Middle East, which has entered into a state of regional turbulence with instability and conflicts since the Arab revolutions. All of these actors occupied critical areas over the proxies in crisis areas (for example Syria) and constructed military bases, air bases and modern cold war practices. At the same time this was the most suitable example of the global shifting era and arguments about multipolarity in world policy.    

In the era of global shifting focused on the China-USA (via Taiwan Crisis) and NATO-Russia (via Ukraine War) rivalry, the policies and acts of regional and global actors will help us to make more predictable analysis about the Middle East’s security architecture. However, it does not seem possible with the double-standard, hypocritical policy of the Western alliance (US+EU), which supports Israel’s aggressive attitude in this region.