It has been more than two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukrainian territory, officially marking the beginning of the war. This invasion clearly indicates that Russia meticulously prepared for the military and economic aspects of the conflict, ensuring it had the capability to invade. However, political experts and the media widely agree that Russia’s actions reveal that Russia is no longer considered a superpower.

The war has significantly impacted Russia’s internal economy and damaged its political reputation globally, while also alerting other nations to the fact that Russia is no longer a dominant power. Whether this decline is a recent development or whether Russia had already lost its superpower status long before remains a subject of debate. In this article, readers will explore the current state of Russia, examining key issues such as its military capabilities, economic standing, diplomatic losses, and exclusion from international alliances.

Weak Superpower

Samuel Huntington, a prominent scholar, defines a superpower as “a state that is capable of projecting dominating power and influence anywhere in the world and sometimes in more than one region simultaneously.” Examining Russia through this lens reveals that the country has lost its superpower status under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. This decline is evidenced by Russia’s inability to sustain global influence across multiple regions, compounded by economic stagnation and increasing diplomatic isolation.

However, “a weak superpower” in political discourse refers to a state with military capabilities, nuclear deterrence, and regional influence, but lacking the comprehensive economic and political power to maintain global leadership. Consequently, despite Russia’s assertions about its military arsenal, natural resources, and leadership in regional affairs, it struggles to confront external challenges and adapt to global shifts that are happening today. This dissonance between regional strength and global limitations highlights Russia’s inability to assert itself as a dominant global power in the face of evolving international dynamics.

Military

In fact, it has long been recognized that Russia possesses one of the world’s leading military forces, with approximately 1.5 million active-duty troops, making it the second-largest active military force globally. Under Vladimir Putin, the country has allocated a significant portion of its budget to military spending, which ranks as the third-highest in the world. Additionally, Russia holds the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, solidifying its strategic military importance. However, despite these impressive assets, there has been growing discussion regarding the recent limitations of Russia’s military power.

Russia’s conventional military strength has been severely undermined by logistical deficiencies, particularly in supply chain management and troop mobility. The military has faced significant challenges with inadequate transportation and equipment maintenance, resulting in delays and shortages of ammunition, fuel, and spare parts. Furthermore, Russia’s reliance on outdated infrastructure and poorly coordinated logistical operations has hindered the effective deployment of reinforcements and essential resources. These logistical shortcomings have exposed critical weaknesses in Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged military operations beyond its immediate borders, thus limiting its capacity to project power globally.

Economy

This country’s economy is heavily reliant on its natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas, which are key contributors to its export earnings and overall economic output, positioning it as one of the world’s leading producers. However, this dependency, coupled with entrenched corruption at the governmental level, has left Russia’s domestic economy vulnerable and relatively weak. In response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the United States and its allies imposed sweeping economic sanctions that have effectively isolated Russia from the global financial system.
The U.S. began its sanctions in 2022 by freezing $5 billion of Russian central bank assets and blocking major Russian banks from accessing the SWIFT payment network.

In January 2024, the U.S. and G7 countries expanded these measures, targeting Russian diamonds, one of the country’s largest untaxed exports at the time. These sanctions have had a profound impact on Russia’s economy, leading to a significant decline in foreign investment and restricted access to crucial technology. Despite efforts to seek alternative markets and implement workarounds, the long-term effects, including the erosion of Russia’s international financial connections and its technological isolation, are likely to continue weakening the economy and hindering its ability to recover fully.

Isolation

Talking about the international arena, Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine has increased Russia’s diplomatic isolation, as highlighted in a UK statement to the OSCE. UK military advisor Nicholas Aucott states that Putin’s disastrous military campaign has diplomatically diminished Russia, forcing it to turn to North Korea and Iran. Russia’s increasing dependence on China, following its diplomatic isolation from the West, signals a shift in the global power dynamic with significant implications for Russian foreign policy.

While the strategic partnership with China provides Russia with economic support and a counterbalance to Western pressure, it also limits Moscow’s independence in international affairs. The asymmetry of the relationship, where China benefits from Russia’s resources and geopolitical positioning, could gradually shift the balance of power in favor of Beijing. This dependency risks reducing Russia to a subordinate role in its foreign policy decisions, further limiting its ability to assert influence globally. The long-term impact may be a diminished Russian geopolitical identity, increasingly shaped by China’s rising dominance.

NATO

As Russia’s influence weakens, NATO’s role in international security has grown significantly, with the alliance expanding its presence in Eastern Europe and strengthening its deterrence capabilities. NATO’s increasing effectiveness in this region has led to a noticeable decline in Russia’s strategic influence, particularly as former Soviet states and Eastern European nations have increasingly aligned with the West. This shift has severely restricted Russia’s freedom of action, limiting its ability to exert military or political pressure in a region it once dominated. The strategic consequences of this include diminished Russian leverage over neighboring countries, reduced military options in the face of NATO’s growing strength, and a heightened sense of insecurity within Russia’s sphere of influence.

While NATO’s growing influence in Eastern Europe has limited Russia’s strategic freedom, the country has demonstrated its ability to fight and mobilize simultaneously, challenging Western expectations. The pace of Russia’s military reconstitution has exceeded initial forecasts, with rapid refurbishment of equipment and mobilization of manpower, suggesting a greater readiness for conflict than previously anticipated. However, Russia’s decision-making will not be solely driven by military preparedness but by the “correlation of forces” and the perceived weakness of the NATO Alliance. Russia is likely to act based on political calculations rather than raw military readiness, choosing to engage NATO only when it deems the strategic conditions favorable.

Russia’s trajectory as a global power is uncertain, with clear evidence of both strength and significant limitations. On one hand, its military capabilities, particularly its nuclear arsenal and large active-duty forces, maintain its strategic importance. However, logistical challenges and the inability to sustain effective military operations beyond its borders reveal vulnerabilities that hinder its capacity to project power globally. Economically, Russia’s dependence on natural resources, corruption, and the impact of sweeping international sanctions have left it isolated and weakened. Despite efforts to find alternative markets, the long-term effects of these sanctions are likely to continue diminishing Russia’s economic standing.

In addition, its increasing diplomatic isolation, especially from the West, and growing dependence on China, place Russia in a subordinate role in international affairs. While Russia retains significant military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, its global influence has significantly diminished. The country’s economic vulnerability, compounded by international sanctions, and its increasing diplomatic isolation, particularly from the West, have eroded its “power”. Even though Russia has a strong reputation in the region, it is unlikely to reclaim superpower status without substantial changes in its internal and external dynamics, which will not happen in this decade.