The Middle East is a complicated web of social, political, economic, and military issues that make the region difficult to understand and navigate. There is a distinct set of historical issues that every nation must contend with. The persistent tensions and shaped relationships are products of the long-lasting effects of colonialism, religious intolerance, and previous military conflicts. 

The strategic location of the Middle East further complicates matters. Its location at the meeting point of three continents—Africa, Asia, and Europe—gives it tremendous strategic importance. The region’s geopolitical position makes it a hotspot for international diplomacy, a platform for influence peddling and power struggles, and a common site for foreign military interventions. The region’s significance is amplified by its abundant natural resources, especially oil and gas. International interest and rivalry for these resources can deteriorate preexisting conflicts and complicate regional ties. The precarious power dynamics are further exacerbated by the ever-present scrutiny from outside parties and their ambitions to exert influence.

Israel’s Ongoing Struggle

Israel faces major security, economic, and societal issues that stem from its diverse religious and ethnic population. The demographic is predominantly Jewish, with approximately 77% of the population identifying as such. 21%, primarily Palestinians, identify as Arab and the remaining portion of the population don’t identify as either. This intricate makeup fosters persistent disputes concerning citizenship rights, social equality, and cultural integration, leading to a multifaceted societal landscape plagued by tension. 

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the greatest barrier to societal cohesion in Israel and poses a chronic threat to the country’s security. The conflict originated in the early twentieth century. The birth of Zionism, a movement calling for a Jewish homeland in the land now known as Israel, coincided with the Ottoman Empire’s developing Arab nationalism. This collision of goals was amplified by the establishment of the British Mandate for Palestine during World War I, which attempted to balance competing claims but ultimately failed. The establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, following the U.N. Partition Plan, was a watershed moment, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians and sparking the first Arab-Israeli war. This event continues to be a source of dispute, with the Palestinian demand for the right of return for refugees displaced in 1948 serving as a key component of the conflict. 

While cultural and religious strife plays a major role, the conflict’s core lies in deeply contested claims over land, with both parties referencing religious texts in attempts to validate their claims. Palestinians seek an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, including East Jerusalem, while Israel maintains control over these territories. The expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, deemed illegal under international law, further exacerbates the situation and hinders the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. The status of Jerusalem, a city of immense religious and cultural significance for Jews, Christians, and Muslims, remains a highly contentious issue, with both sides claiming it as their capital. 

On October 7, 2023, the simmering tensions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict boiled over as Hamas launched a surprise attack, marking a significant and violent escalation in the decades-long struggle. The assault, unprecedented in its scale and brutality, involved thousands of Hamas militants breaching the fortified border between Gaza and Israel. They targeted civilian communities, military installations, and even a music festival, resulting in the deaths of over 1,100 Israelis, including women, children, and elderly individuals. The attackers also took hundreds of hostages, further traumatizing the Israeli population. The sheer ferocity of the attack, coupled with the graphic images and videos that quickly circulated online, initially sent shockwaves across the globe and ignited a firestorm of condemnation against Hamas. 

The immediate impact within Israel was one of profound grief, anger, and a sense of vulnerability. The attack exposed significant intelligence and security failures, shaking public confidence in the government’s ability to protect its citizens. The national trauma galvanized a powerful response, Israel declaring war on Hamas and launching a massive retaliatory campaign in the Gaza Strip. This response, characterized by intense airstrikes and a subsequent ground invasion, resulted in a staggering number of Palestinian casualties and widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure. 

Beyond the devastating human cost, the October 7 attack and its aftermath have had a cascading effect with broader ramifications. The already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated dramatically, with hundreds of thousands displaced and facing shortages of food, water, and medical supplies. Moreover, Israel’s response sparked pro-Palestinian protests worldwide, and the conflict is now one of the most debated and contentious issues in the West. As the war persists, the divide between the pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel sides deepens, reigniting international attention on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, with global powers taking sides and calls for a permanent ceasefire and a negotiated solution growing louder. Furthermore, the war has aggravated existing social and economic challenges. The constant state of alert has strained the Israeli economy, thus impacting tourism, trade, and investment. The defense budget has increased significantly, diverting resources from other crucial sectors such as healthcare and education. The heightened social tensions within Israeli society have initiated debates about the government’s response and the future of the conflict, further dividing public opinion. 

Aside from the immediate security challenges, Israel faces significant socioeconomic disparities. Growth in Israel’s economy has not been dispersed equitably, despite the fact that it is dynamic and driven by technology and innovation. Israel ranks among the OECD countries with the highest economic disparity, with approximately 2 million Israelis living in poverty. The labor market shows significant polarization, with lower wages remaining “shockingly low.” Unfortunately, many people experience economic and social exclusion; this is especially true for the Arab population in Israel. High living costs, particularly in urban centers, have made housing unaffordable for many, contributing to a growing gap between the rich and the poor. This lack of equitable distribution has led to rising discontent among segments of the population that feel marginalized and left behind in the wake of economic progress. The stark contrast between affluent urban environments and economically deprived rural areas fuels social instability. It heightens tensions within Israeli society as communities grapple with its impact on the quality of life and access to essential resources. 

While the reality of Israel’s national circumstances is grim, the January 2025 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas offers the potential for alleviating the compounding effects of the conflict on the Israeli and Palestinian people. However, cautious optimism is necessary. The ceasefire represents a fragile hope rather than a definitive end to the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. Past ceasefire attempts did not progress beyond the initial phases of the agreements, and the demands of both sides are unrealistic at this point in time. International pressure on Israel and Hamas to be faithful to the agreement is palpable, but this does not ensure that either side is going to heed foreign advice. We must remember that there was a ceasefire in place on October 6, 2023. Thus, these agreements and ceasefires are essentially bandages for a greater problem that will prolong the conflict if not thoroughly recognized and addressed with sensitivity and persistence.

Iran’s Authoritarian Grip

The establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 has profoundly shaped Iran’s recent delicate dynamics, creating a system where political power is concentrated, social freedoms are often restricted, and the economy struggles under the weight of sanctions and internal pressures. Iran’s social fabric is fraying, owing to high youth unemployment and deep-rooted gender discrimination. Iran’s demographic profile is notably youthful, with more than half of the population under the age of thirty. This demographic has the potential to drive change; however, the reality for many young Iranians is starkly different. Iran’s history is marked by the silent struggles of its counterculture, a smoldering rebellion against the Islamic Republic’s restrictions.

For millennia, artists, academics, and ordinary citizens have sought ways to voice their discontent, often in hidden settings. This heritage of quiet disobedience has influenced Iran’s Gen Z, a generation that is more connected to the world than ever before. They are knowledgeable, interconnected, and growing impatient for change. Also, despite their education, many of these young people are unable to find meaningful employment. This disparity and fatigue from oppression has resulted in a surge of public anger and unrest, with large-scale protests emerging as a common form of expressing opposition. Women have played an important role in these demonstrations as they continue to confront considerable constraints on their personal liberties and public engagement due to conservative interpretations of Islamic law governing numerous aspects of their lives.

Politically, Iran is governed by an authoritarian regime characterized by a distinct concentration of power. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sits at the apex of this system. He exerts considerable control over critical institutions, including the military, the judiciary, and key administrative bodies. Consequently, dissent is routinely suppressed, and political freedoms are severely limited, with the government employing various tactics to stifle opposition and curb free expression. The electoral landscape is heavily manipulated to ensure minimal competition and to marginalize reformist factions. This fosters pervasive disenfranchisement among the electorate, who yearn for democratic reforms and greater political representation. Due to four decades of unfulfilled promises made by Khamenei and other Iranian politicians, voter turnout for the 2024 snap presidential election—held following the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi— hit a 45-year low, with just 41% of the electorate participating. Additionally, systemic corruption within various layers of government worsens the challenges faced by citizens and hampers economic growth. The rampant misappropriation of resources stifles potential development and erodes public trust in governmental institutions. Thus, there are intensifying calls for transparency and accountability from a populace increasingly weary of the status quo. 

Iran’s economic situation is equally as dire, and it has been substantially influenced by international sanctions, particularly those imposed by the U.S. Iran’s economy has been significantly weakened by these sanctions, which have restricted its capacity to participate in global trade. This has resulted in escalating inflation rates and further exacerbated the already precarious living conditions of numerous citizens. The nation’s economic prospects are further complicated by its substantial dependence on crude exports, which renders it exceedingly susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices. Thus, many citizens are unable to make ends meet in the face of financial instability and uncertainty, and initiatives intended to stimulate economic recovery encounter formidable challenges. The Biden administration adopted a more permissive approach to sanctions on Iran, but President Trump has pledged to reinstate the restrictions imposed during his first term. President Trump’s philosophy of “peace through strength” suggests he will likely utilize sanctions enforcement to maximize the impact on Iran’s economy. Additionally, the imposition of sanctions on nations that import Iranian oil is under consideration. This may compel Iran to cease its uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons program, as called for by a majority of the international community, or lead Iran to implement economic measures, such as increasing tariffs on its goods to counteract the sanctions. Both choices are disadvantageous for Iran as it aspires to attain nuclear power status and aims to circumvent regional trade conflicts due to its precarious economic condition. 

Iran’s regional strategy has been fundamentally shaped by its “Axis of Resistance,” a network of Shiite militant organizations and political actors that spans the Middle East. Members of the alliance include Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Syria’s Assad regime, Hamas in Gaza, and Shiite militias in Iraq. The landscape has been considerably altered by recent events, particularly the deterioration of Hezbollah and the Assad regime’s collapse in Syria, which has the potential to result in the complete dissolution of this alliance. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant organization, has been a critical component of the Axis, acting as Iran’s proxy in Lebanon and a significant player in the Syrian conflict. The Israeli bombardment and assassinations that resulted in Hezbollah’s destruction were a catastrophic strike to Iran’s regional influence. Iran has forfeited a substantial foothold in Lebanon and a critical connection to Syria in the absence of Hezbollah’s political influence and military prowess. This loss not only undermines Iran’s position in the Levant but also affects its capacity to project influence throughout the region. Additionally, Iran faces further challenges due to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran has made significant investments in supporting Assad’s government, making the Syrian conflict a significant battleground for the Axis. The absence of this ally deprives Iran of a land conduit that connects it to the Mediterranean and Lebanon, as well as a crucial strategic depth. Moreover, it provides a boost to Iran’s regional adversaries, who have been competing for influence in Syria.

Syria After Assad

The humanitarian crisis in Syria has escalated dramatically, transforming a once-stable nation into a volatile conflict zone that has displaced millions. The civil war, beginning in 2011 at the height of the Arab Spring, has resulted in over 500,000 deaths and forced more than 6.8 million Syrians to seek refuge in neighboring countries, alongside millions more displaced internally. This mass displacement has spurred a severe refugee crisis, mostly affecting Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan. Resources are stretched thin, and social tensions are on the rise as these nations come to terms with the influx of refugees. In the wake of this prolonged conflict, Syria’s healthcare and educational infrastructure have been ravaged. Since hospitals were often targeted by aerial bombings, they now operate at a reduced capacity due to the lack of supplies and medical professionals fleeing the country for safety. Access to essential medical treatment has dramatically diminished, leading to disease outbreaks and mounting malnutrition, particularly among vulnerable communities. Schools also lie in ruins, depriving children of their right to education. 

Following an 11-day assault in December 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Turkish-backed Sunni Muslim group from Idlib, overthrew the Assad regime, bringing Syria’s political situation to the forefront of international news. HTS is classified as a terrorist organization, notably by the United Nations, the U.S., the European Union, and the United Kingdom, having established itself as a breakaway group of al-Qaeda in 2016. Its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, stated that HTS should be removed from the list of terrorist organizations because it is not one. He claims that HTS has not targeted civilians or civilian areas and that the group’s members are also victims of the Assad dictatorship. However, HTS’s assumption of power continues to raise global concerns due to the organization’s extremist background and history of human rights violations in areas previously under its control.

HTS’s takeover of Syria introduces a complex scenario, offering a comprehensive vision for the state while attempting to shape crucial aspects of its future governance. Despite public assurances from Ahmed al-Sharaa regarding minority inclusion, its actions suggest a predetermined move towards centralization. A centralized government contradicts the aspirations of many local populations, particularly the Kurds and Druze, who have historically resisted centralized control. HTS’s perspectives on state-religion ties aggravate the situation even more. Its assertions about Syria’s Muslim identity and the necessity of instituting Sharia law, especially within the police force, indicate that it potentially intends to carry out its rule without substantial discussion or public consensus. This concern has grown in response to the recent posting of a new school curriculum for all ages on the Education Ministry’s Facebook page. The curriculum underwent significant revisions, such as replacing the phrase “Defending the Nation” with “Defending Allah” and removing Darwinism and the Big Bang Theory from science classes. Other worrying changes include the removal of any teachings or photographs of statues of gods worshipped in Syria before the rise of Islam, as well as the reduction of lectures covering the renowned Syrian queen, Zenobia. 

The lack of significant U.N. involvement, while logical given the organization’s prior failures in Syria, leaves the process vulnerable to HTS dominance. The uncertain timescale for constitutional deliberations raises the possibility that the constitution may be drafted by HTS appointees rather than elected legislators. Majority voting rather than consensus-building carries significant risks and puts HTS’s preferences ahead of the protection of minority rights. The group’s intention to delay presidential elections for several years, though seemingly understandable in a post-conflict setting, is contentious. HTS’s portrayal of future governance as a presidential system prematurely dictates a key component of the constitutional framework. This disregard for traditional constitutional procedures, which typically involve extensive debate and agreement on the political structure, is concerning, especially given the adverse experiences with presidential systems in the region, as seen in Syria, Libya, and Tunisia. 

Al-Sharaa predicts that a significant portion of the Syrian population will gradually support an Islamist political system. Despite Al-Sharaa’s aspirations and yearning for political legitimacy, the diverse society, with substantial non-Muslim and non-Sunni communities like Christians, Druze, Alawites, Turkmen, and Kurds, may resist a Sunni Islamist state. Images and videos depicting the burning of Hafez al-Assad’s grave and attacks on Alawite monuments indicate that societal cohesion will be a major obstacle. There are also potential tensions within the Sunni community itself, between Salafists and followers of the Sufi tradition, which could further complicate dynamics. Also, Al-Sharaa only held power and control in northern Syria. Therefore, he has no authority over the militias in the center and south of Syria, which have varying ideologies and could potentially rival the transitional government in the future. 

Given Syria’s turbulent history, these concerns are understandable, yet how HTS was established provides a glimmer of optimism. When Al-Sharaa split from Al-Qaeda, he only allowed indigenous Syrian activists to lead his new organization. With a group of Syrians who resisted the Assad dictatorship, cautious optimism is warranted in the hope that fresh, pragmatic administration and patriotism will triumph — provided that HTS’s aims are not centered on power and profit. To alleviate concerns, HTS must sincerely engage in a consensus-oriented constitutional dialogue to avoid escalating instability and violence in Syria. 

Despite its shortcomings, the international community also has a responsibility to advocate for a more transparent and fair approach. Interactions must balance security needs with the upholding of global standards and values. Initial steps should include comprehensive assessments of HTS’s goals, capabilities, and adherence to international law, especially regarding human rights. Moreover, it is vital to establish diplomatic channels with well-defined criteria for governance improvements, the rule of law, and the protection of minority rights. Giving humanitarian issues top priority guarantees that relief will reach the Syrian people without unintentionally arming HTS. This calls for strict oversight to stop resource diversion and close collaboration with unbiased humanitarian organizations.

Yemen’s Endless War

Entering its eleventh year in 2025, Yemen’s civil war has resulted in a complex crisis of immense proportions. The myriads of issues include a profoundly destabilizing security vacuum, a humanitarian catastrophe, and a devastating economic collapse. The country’s infrastructure has been shattered, millions have been pushed to the brink of famine, and a protracted conflict with far-reaching regional implications has been fueled by the interwoven nature of these crises, resulting in a perfect storm of suffering. Approximately 21.6 million individuals are in dire need of immediate aid, highlighting the magnitude of the distress. Food insecurity affects over half the population, with 4.7 million experiencing severe hunger in government-controlled regions alone. The critical situation is worsened by a lack of humanitarian aid, marked by reduced rations and inconsistent distribution.

Due to significant funding shortages, the World Food Program was only able to provide two cycles of General Food Assistance between January and July 2024, demonstrating the difficulty of maintaining aid and highlighting the gravity of the situation. The disintegration of Yemen’s healthcare system exacerbates this catastrophe. Forty-six percent of health institutions are either partially operating or entirely closed, resulting in 17.8 million individuals lacking access to essential medical treatment. This has fostered an environment conducive to disease epidemics, with measles and rubella cases approaching 20,000 by October 2024, leading to a devastating number of deaths. The situation is further worsened by the proliferation of cholera, with 186,000 suspected cases documented across 22 governorates. The population of Yemen confronts a confluence of famine, disease, and an absence of critical services, illustrating a bleak scenario of a nation in urgent need of help.

The military landscape in Yemen remains an entanglement of competing interests, where the presence of three distinct forces—the Houthis, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)—complicates any path to lasting peace. In the south, the STC, advocating for an independent South Yemen, challenges the authority of the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG). Their presence creates a volatile situation, often leading to clashes with government forces and further fragmenting the country. 

Adding to this already precarious mix is the presence of AQAP, a terrorist organization that exploits the chaos of the conflict to establish a foothold in Yemen. Its presence not only poses a direct threat to regional and international security but also further destabilizes the country, hindering humanitarian efforts and complicating peace negotiations. In a significant operation, AQAP killed a military commander and three soldiers from the Security Belt Forces, a coalition of STC forces, in August 2023. The organization’s sudden deployment of advanced drone technology suggests possible external support, marking a concerning development in its operational capabilities. 

The Houthis, a Zaidi Shia movement, control significant portions of northern Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, and have proven themselves a formidable fighting force. Their motivations are multifaceted, ranging from local grievances to broader regional ambitions, and their relationship with Iran adds another layer of geopolitical complexity. In October 2023, the group intervened in the Israel-Hamas war on behalf of the Palestinians. They have demonstrated advanced military capabilities, deploying ballistic missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and hypersonic missiles. Initially launching attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the Houthis have conducted over 200 missile and drone strikes against Israel and shipping targets. Subsequently, their operations expanded to include attacks on U.S. warships in the Gulf of Aden. The impact on global shipping has been immense, with container transit through the Suez Canal plummeting from 2,068 vessels in November 2023 to 877 in October 2024.

These operations prompted the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a U.S.-led multinational mission to protect maritime commerce. However, the Houthis have vowed to persist until humanitarian aid is allowed into the Gaza Strip and Hamas is victorious. Though advocating for the plight of the Palestinians was initially viewed as an obligation, the Houthis have garnered international attention and have proven competitive with the global hegemons. Regardless of whether a ceasefire is reached, the Houthis’ heightened standing as an established lethal combatant in the Middle East may embolden them to pursue additional military action against Israel and the West. It is also worth noting that, with the overthrow of the Assad regime and the degradation of Hezbollah, the Houthis are now the most indispensable ally of Iran. The interplay between these three actors in Yemen, each with its own distinct agenda and military capabilities, creates a fluid and unpredictable battlefield. With alliances shifting and territorial control remaining constantly contested, this makes a resolution to the Yemeni civil war exceedingly difficult to achieve. 

Beyond the internal power struggle, Yemen’s economy is in a serious recession. This economic degradation is the outcome of a combination of factors, each of which exacerbates the others. The Yemeni rial’s value has plunged, and this currency devaluation has spurred hyperinflation, raising the cost of vital items to unsustainable levels. The Minimum Food Basket, a basic indicator of nutritional needs, has reached a record high per household, putting basic sustenance out of reach for many. Compounding these problems is a severe drop in real GDP per capita, which has decreased by 54% since 2015, illustrating Yemen’s long-term economic collapse. The restriction of oil exports, combined with already dwindling foreign exchange reserves, has inflicted a crushing blow to government revenues, which fell by 42% in the first half of 2024. This financial strain greatly restricts the government’s ability to meet the demands of its citizens, deepening the problem. The general economic prognosis remains bleak, with living conditions deteriorating dramatically for the vast majority of the population. This is especially true for the internally displaced, as a startling 80% lack a consistent source of income and frequently live on less than $40 per month. Yemen’s economic collapse has made essential goods increasingly expensive, leaving the populace facing further devastation. 

While international efforts to broker peace frequently make headlines, local peace groups and initiatives aid in the fight for a better future. These grassroots activities, often led by ordinary Yemenis—including tribal elders, community organizers, women’s groups, and youth activists—represent an important but often underestimated aspect of the peace process. The Yemen International Forum (YIF) has emerged as a crucial, civil-society-driven force for peace, providing a vital platform for dialogue and collaboration. Bringing together over 500 political representatives, policymakers, and civil society members, the YIF facilitates Yemeni discussions across a range of critical themes, offering crucial support to the formal U.N.-led peace process. This type of engagement is further strengthened by expanding local consultation efforts. 

Inclusive committees have been established in three governorates, working in coordination with existing administrative structures. These committees play a key role in advising governors on development and peacebuilding priorities. They encourage local governance participation and ensure that the peace process reflects the needs and aspirations of Yemeni communities. The combined efforts of the Yemen International Forum (YIF) and these local committees create a multi-layered approach to peacebuilding, bridging the gap between high-level negotiations and the realities on the ground. 

Additionally, tribal mediation has become a vital tool in negotiating the difficult terrain of conflict resolution. From large-scale efforts, such as arranging the release of thousands of prisoners between the Yemeni government and the Houthis, to localized initiatives like halting combat in Al-Motoon, tribal chiefs have demonstrated their effectiveness. Their initiatives in Taiz and Marib have also facilitated the reopening of key routes, including major roads linking Aden with southern cities. Additionally, tribal mediation is essential in reducing conflicts between security forces and local communities, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas. Strategic alliances between tribal leaders and civil society organizations can help amplify this success. Modern technologies for conflict mapping and analysis, introduced by civil society, offer insightful data and assessments that complement the traditional time-tested approaches of tribal negotiation. This combined approach leverages the strengths of both conventional and modern methods, thereby strengthening the foundation for peacebuilding.

Iraq’s Post-War Gamble

Iraq is experiencing its most stable period since the ouster of Saddam Hussein. Despite the involvement of various Shia Iraqi groups in the Israel-Hamas conflict and intermittent ISIS attacks, Iraq remains relatively peaceful. While this may inspire hope for those who equate Iraq solely with war, the country continues to grapple with the long-term consequences of its war-torn history and governance abuse. The humanitarian crisis in Iraq, resulting from years of conflict and displacement, remains one of the country’s most critical challenges. The effects of the rise of ISIS and the destruction left in its wake continue to plague the Iraqi population, despite more than a decade having passed. Millions of Iraqis remain displaced, living in camps or attempting to rebuild shattered lives. Some have endured secondary displacements due to ongoing struggles for power among tribal and militia groups in many regions.

The sheer scale of destruction—including homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure—makes returning home even more difficult. In addition to physical damage, the presence of explosive war remnants poses an ongoing and insidious hazard, particularly to vulnerable children. Beyond the visible wounds, psychological trauma from war and displacement continues to affect individuals and communities, leaving lasting scars on the social fabric. This anguish is amplified by the uncertainty surrounding the fate of thousands of missing Iraqis, many of whom were minorities forcibly disappeared during the rise and fall of ISIS. 

This humanitarian crisis is further exacerbated by significant threats to political stability and good governance. Iraq suffers from a crippling combination of corruption, weak institutions, and ongoing political infighting. Sectarian tensions and power struggles continue to impede progress toward a cohesive and stable state. The widespread absence of accountability for previous crimes and human rights violations undermines the already weak public trust in political institutions. This results in a vicious cycle of instability and adversely affects efforts to address humanitarian needs. 

Iraq’s economy, heavily reliant on oil and scarred by decades of conflict, faces complex challenges that hinder its potential for sustainable growth and development. While the country possesses significant natural resources, translating this potential into tangible benefits for its citizens requires addressing deep-rooted structural issues and fostering diversification. For the last decade, oil has accounted for 99% of Iraq’s export revenue and 85% of government income. Ultimately, this renders the economy extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. This has inhibited diversification, impeding the growth of other industries, including agriculture, manufacturing, and services. A lack of economic diversity creates a volatile climate, as observed during periods of low oil prices, which can result in substantial budget deficits and reduced investment in other sectors.

Another key concern is widespread corruption at various levels of government and institutions. Corruption diverts public funds, undermines the rule of law, and deters international investment. It provides an uneven playing field for firms, favoring those with connections while preventing fair competition. This culture of corruption erodes public trust and fuels social discontent, further destabilizing the economy. While there is an anti-corruption institution in place—the Integrity Commission—only around 7% of the cases are prosecuted. Additionally, the Commission relies on paper-based data that is neither consistently reliable nor accessible and does not account for electronic transactions. The lack of authority also hinders the Integrity Commission from being effective. 

One of the most pressing security concerns remains the enduring threat of terrorism. While the territorial defeat of ISIS marked a significant turning point, it did not usher in an era of lasting peace. ISIS continues to operate in Iraq, carrying out sporadic attacks, particularly in rural areas and disputed territories. These attacks aim to destabilize the country and sow fear. The group’s continued presence underscores the complex nature of counterterrorism efforts, requiring not only military action but also addressing the root causes of extremism, such as poverty, marginalization, and political grievances. Additionally, the porous borders of Iraq and ongoing regional instability contribute to the flow of foreign fighters and weapons, heightening the terrorist threat.

Beyond the threat of ISIS, Iraq contends with a volatile political landscape that frequently spills over into security challenges. Deep-seated sectarian divisions and power struggles among various political factions often undermine the authority of the state and hinder effective governance. These tensions can manifest in armed clashes between rival groups, further destabilizing already fragile regions. The proliferation of weapons, a legacy of past conflicts, adds another layer of complexity to the security environment. The easy availability of firearms empowers both criminal gangs and armed militias, contributing to a climate of lawlessness and violence. Disputes over land, resources, and political influence can quickly escalate into armed confrontations.

Türkiye and the West

Türkiye maintains a facade of electoral participation and a dynamic civil society. However, recent years have witnessed a gradual erosion of institutional checks and balances, a growing concentration of power in the executive branch, and persistent concerns about the rule of law and fundamental freedoms. These interwoven issues raise serious questions about the future of Turkish democracy and its ability to uphold the rights and liberties of its people. Under the leadership of President Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), Türkiye’s political landscape has progressively shifted toward a more centralized governance structure. The 2017 constitutional referendum transitioned Türkiye to an executive presidential system, significantly expanding the president’s authority while simultaneously weakening the parliament and the judiciary. This shift has resulted in a system where the president holds vast executive powers, including the ability to issue decrees, appoint key officials, and significantly influence judicial processes. The concentration of power has raised alarms about the diminishing role of checks and balances, making it increasingly difficult to hold the executive branch accountable and raising concerns about potential abuses of power. This constitutional change has drawn significant criticism, both domestically and internationally. 

Freedom of expression and media freedom are also under increased scrutiny. The Turkish government has faced criticism for cracking down on journalists, academics, and civil society activists who hold opposing viewpoints. Many journalists have been imprisoned, media outlets critical of the government have been closed or taken over by government-linked entities, and self-censorship has become widespread. The employment of restrictive legislation to suppress dissent has had a chilling impact on public debate, significantly limiting the space for critical voices to be heard.

The protection of minority rights and the inclusivity of political processes continue to be substantial obstacles. Specifically, the Kurdish population’s rights, freedom of expression, political involvement, and cultural rights remain a source of concern. The relationship between Turks and Kurds is long and complex, marked by periods of coexistence and conflict. Historically, Kurds enjoyed some autonomy within the Ottoman Empire. However, the establishment of the modern Republic of Türkiye and its focus on a unified Turkish identity led to policies of assimilation, suppressing Kurdish culture and language. This incited Kurdish resistance and uprisings. The rise of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its armed insurgency against the Turkish state in the late 20th century escalated the conflict, resulting in significant loss of life and widespread human rights abuses. While there have been attempts at peace, a lasting resolution remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. The government’s approach to the Kurds has been criticized for its harsh security measures and lack of sincere dialogue to address underlying grievances. Minority participation in political institutions, as well as their ability to fully engage in public life, continues to be an area in need of progress. 

The economic landscape in Türkiye is equally tumultuous, with the country facing significant challenges that threaten its long-term stability. The Turkish lira’s depreciation is linked to a variety of factors, including political uncertainties, concerns about the independence of the Central Bank, and external shocks. The government’s reluctance to adopt conventional monetary policies, such as raising interest rates to address inflation, has generated further criticism and diminished investor confidence. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened existing economic vulnerabilities in critical sectors such as tourism. These inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations have eroded purchasing power and increased the cost of living for ordinary citizens.

Türkiye is also confronted with a substantial current account deficit, which results from importing more goods and services than it exports. The economy is susceptible to sudden capital outflows and external disruptions since this deficit is funded through foreign borrowing. Türkiye has faced a persistent current account deficit, indicative of structural imbalances in the economy and a dependence on foreign financing. Türkiye’s economy is additionally affected by regional instability and geopolitical risks. Conflicts in neighboring countries, such as Syria, and tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean contribute to uncertainty and the potential disruption of trade and investment flows. These geopolitical factors further complicate Türkiye’s economic outlook, making future economic trends and risk management more challenging. 

Türkiye’s unique geopolitical location comes with the consequences of an evolving array of international security challenges. The presence of various extremist groups, including remnants of ISIS, poses a direct threat to Türkiye’s security. Furthermore, the complex relationship with Kurdish groups in Syria, like the YPG—which Türkiye considers an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organization by Türkiye, the U.S., and the EU—adds another layer of complexity. Türkiye’s concerns about the potential for Kurdish autonomy in Syria have led to military incursions and strained relations with its NATO allies, especially the U.S. The Black Sea region is another area of strategic importance for Türkiye and has also witnessed increasing tensions in recent years. The annexation of Crimea by Russia and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have heightened concerns about Russian assertiveness in the region. Türkiye, as a Black Sea power and a NATO member, must navigate a delicate balance between maintaining its relationship with Russia and upholding its commitments to the alliance. The control of the Turkish Straits, which connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, adds another dimension to Türkiye’s security considerations in this region. 

The fall of the Assad regime presents a multitude of opportunities for Türkiye. Cooperating with the U.S. in Syria would offer Türkiye several strategic advantages. A renewed partnership would address critical security concerns, enhance Türkiye’s regional influence, and improve its international standing. Specifically, it offers a pathway to significantly reduce the threat posed by Kurdish groups whose presence along Türkiye’s border is seen as a major security risk. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that there will be a shift in U.S. policy away from Kurdish autonomy and having U.S. military personnel stationed in Syria. 

A potential partnership addresses Türkiye’s concern, and U.S. cooperation in limiting YPG influence in Syria further mitigates the threat of cross-border incursions. This cooperation also lends international legitimacy to Türkiye’s actions, countering criticism and potentially yielding financial and diplomatic support. Additionally, it strengthens joint efforts to limit Iranian influence. Increased Russian and Iranian influence in Syria would pose a significant threat to both nations; thus, this shared goal provides an avenue for restoring U.S.-Türkiye cooperation and strengthening NATO as a result. There are also economic opportunities for Türkiye that could arise through investment and streamlined trade if there is U.S. involvement in Syrian reconstruction. Ultimately, this cooperation has the potential to enhance Türkiye’s security, alleviate a major source of tension in U.S.-Turkish relations, and facilitate broader collaboration.

A Blueprint for the Middle East’s Future

The Middle East teeters on the brink of irreversible turmoil, as its nations grapple with a confluence of crises that threaten to engulf the region in further suffering and instability. Though international intervention has been the norm and often an expectation, this should not automatically be the initial course of action for addressing challenges in the Middle East. There are various historical, political, and cultural contexts that external actors may not fully understand, leading to misguided policies that fail to address the core issues. Furthermore, some past interventions have resulted in long-term instability, as seen in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, where foreign involvement led to power vacuums, prolonged conflicts, and weakened institutions. Regional solutions led by Middle Eastern nations themselves are often more sustainable, as they consider local dynamics, traditions, and priorities. Diplomatic efforts, economic partnerships, and intra-regional cooperation should be prioritized to empower Middle Eastern nations to resolve their own disputes. Only when all regional avenues have been exhausted should international involvement be considered, and even then, it should focus on supporting—not dictating—local solutions.

Internally, Middle Eastern nations must prioritize inclusive governance and address deep-seated grievances within their societies. This includes fostering genuine political participation, ensuring representation for diverse ethnic and religious groups, and combating corruption. Strengthening the rule of law and promoting accountability are crucial for creating a stable environment conducive to reconstruction. Furthermore, investing in education, healthcare, and infrastructure is paramount. A well-educated populace is essential for economic growth and social progress. Access to quality healthcare improves overall well-being and reduces vulnerability to disease. Empowering youth to drive real and sustainable change must also be a priority. Rebuilding infrastructure, from roads and bridges to power grids and communication networks, is vital for economic recovery and facilitating the delivery of essential services.

Economic diversification is another critical step. Many Middle Eastern economies are heavily reliant on oil, making them vulnerable to price fluctuations and hindering the development of other sectors. Investing in renewable energy, promoting entrepreneurship, and fostering innovation can create more resilient and sustainable economies. Addressing youth unemployment is also crucial, as a large and disaffected youth population can become a breeding ground for extremism and instability. Creating job opportunities through targeted training programs and support for small and medium-sized enterprises can empower young people and contribute to economic growth. 

Reconciliation and transitional justice are essential for healing the wounds of conflict and building social cohesion. This involves acknowledging past abuses and promoting dialogue and understanding between different communities. Regional and international leaders must be willing to make concessions in response to worsening realities. Truth and reconciliation commissions can play a vital role in documenting past atrocities and facilitating healing. Addressing the root causes of conflict, such as poverty, inequality, and lack of access to resources, is crucial for preventing future violence. 

Given the array of challenges afflicting Middle Eastern nations, the international community can play a vital role in supporting these internal efforts for self-sustentation. Financial assistance is crucial for reconstruction and development. However, aid must be delivered in a transparent and accountable manner to avoid corruption and ensure that it reaches those who need it most. Technical assistance and capacity-building are also essential. Sharing expertise in areas such as governance, economic development, and security sector reform can help Middle Eastern nations build stronger institutions and develop their own capacity for sustainable development. This process must be pursued with sensitivity and deep cultural understanding, as Western interference remains a point of contention for many Middle Eastern nations. Patience and understanding that governance tactics, societal realities, and values can vastly differ from those of international partners are essential. 

Diplomatic efforts to support the resolution of ongoing conflicts and prevent future ones are another critical form of assistance. The international community must engage with all parties to conflicts, including non-state actors, to promote dialogue and find peaceful solutions. Supporting regional cooperation and integration can also contribute to stability and prosperity. Promoting trade, investment, and cultural exchange can foster greater understanding and interdependence between nations. Furthermore, the international community must address the root causes of instability in the region, such as climate change, water scarcity, and food insecurity. Investing in climate adaptation and mitigation measures, promoting sustainable water management, and supporting agricultural development can help build more resilient communities. Addressing the refugee crisis is another critical challenge. Providing humanitarian assistance to refugees, supporting host countries, and working toward durable solutions—such as repatriation or resettlement—are essential for alleviating human suffering and promoting regional stability. 

A critical examination of the international community’s historical interventions in the Middle East is essential. Reflecting on past actions and inactions illuminates pivotal junctures that could have fundamentally altered the trajectories of individual nations and the region as a whole. While national security and international competition may inform decision-making, it is imperative to prioritize the long-term consequences of such interventions. Careful consideration must be given to whether an action risks perpetuating instability and creating unforeseen future challenges or if it is genuinely necessary and beneficial for the region’s long-term well-being. 

The region possesses the capacity and responsibility to shape a collaborative and stable future, but this requires deliberate and sustained efforts from all key stakeholders. In a moment of reckoning, Arab states and regional powers must rise to the occasion and establish lasting frameworks for cooperation. The formation of robust regional multilateral institutions is essential, not only to address immediate crises but also to build long-term stability through economic integration, security cooperation, and diplomatic engagement. These institutions must be reinforced at the national level through policies that promote political inclusion, social cohesion, and mechanisms to mitigate threats posed by extremism, sectarianism, and external interference.

Additionally, open channels of communication between historical adversaries, as well as between national governments and local leadership, can serve as a foundation for de-escalation and reconciliation. Dialogue, trust-building measures, and pragmatic engagement should take precedence over zero-sum politics and reactionary policies that have long fueled instability. The Middle East must recognize that while external actors may play a role in mediation and support, sustainable peace and development can only be achieved from within. True progress begins with a commitment to shared interests and a genuine willingness to break from cycles of conflict. By embracing a vision of collective stability, the region can redefine its trajectory and take ownership of its future.