The Russian invasion of Ukraine brought to the forefront an unexpected outcome. Contrary to the initial aim of the aggressor, it has propelled Ukraine and Moldova on their path to EU integration and further away from the Russian sphere of influence. On February 28th, only four days after the war started, Ukraine applied for EU membership, followed closely by Moldova in March 2022. In June of the same year, both countries were granted candidate status by fast-tracking their accession files to the top of the list—a process that, under ordinary circumstances, would have stretched on far longer. June of 2024 witnessed the official launch of the accession negotiations, proving an unprecedented openness to extend the Eastern border of the European Union.

Concrete steps to European integration were preceded by decades of uncertainty and back-and-forth moves, both from the side of the European Union and on behalf of the two former Soviet states. After Moldova and Ukraine became independent in the early 1990s, the countries expressed their willingness to establish relations with the EU. Back then, talks of potential membership were unheard of: both states were perceived as being too heavily under Russian influence.

A shift in paradigm came in 2009. The European Union launched the European Neighbourhood Policy in order to develop relations with former communist states on its Eastern border. Already in 2014, the European Parliament passed a resolution affirming that “in accordance with Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, as well as any other European country, have a European perspective and can apply for EU membership.” Nonetheless, after Croatia joined the EU in 2013, the possibility of the next enlargement became, at best, a secondary issue on the European agenda. The idea of letting new members in was acknowledged but never prioritized, as in the case of the Western Balkans.

The question of enlargement pivoted in February 2022, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine both revived and forced a sense of urgency in the dilemma of Union security. This new quest for extending is proof of the bloc’s evolving priorities: the EU now recognizes that Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession bear profound implications for regional stability. Ukrainian membership in the EU would cement its alignment with the Western world, signaling a decisive end to Russian attempts at dominance in the region. Moldova, while smaller, is of no lower strategic significance. Sandwiched between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine, Moldova’s accession would further stabilize this vulnerable Eastern corridor, reducing the risk of it becoming a future flashpoint for Russian influence.

The reconsideration of EU enlargement policy on the grounds of security is evident in its willingness to fast-track accession processes. Notwithstanding the injected sense of urgency, European leaders were cautious to add that “enlargement is and will remain a merit-based process,” even amidst a reenergized debate. Opening negotiations, while an important step, represents solely one milestone in a lengthy process. For previous candidates, the journey to membership has typically spanned over a decade, preceded by years of preparation to obtain candidate status.

Back in 2014, Moldova, declared “a Major European Success for the Eastern Partnership,” confidently entered a visa-free regime. The situation in neighbouring Ukraine turned out far more complicated and led to unexpected escalation orchestrated by Russia. In 2013, the Association Agreement was overturned at the very last moment by then-president Viktor Yanukovich, causing a wave of unrest known as EuroMaidan. As Russia perceived its influence over Kyiv waning and the territories it once controlled approaching Western institutions, it fueled the process of internal destabilization. The 2013 EuroMaidan events were followed by the separatist movement in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. While not cutting Ukraine off from its Western aspirations, Russia still managed to inflict a state of uncertainty, effectively pushing integration talks further into the depths of a dusty drawer.

Facing less pushback, the retaliation on behalf of the Russian Federation was felt in Chișinău as well: once the country signed the Association Agreement in 2014, Moldova’s agricultural products were declared unfit for Russian quality criteria, effectively banning their entrance into what used to be Moldova’s largest export market. The moment Moldova and Ukraine began taking steps towards a closer partnership with the EU, Russia swiftly interfered in the process. Yet, ironically, Russia’s destabilizing actions and the blatant violation of international norms with the invasion of Ukraine had the opposite effect—rather than pulling these countries closer into the Russian circle, it pushed them towards the EU in an unprecedented manner.

Moldova and Ukraine still have to go through a complex series of reforms before being granted membership. Both candidate nations must meet a series of benchmarks to progress along the path of EU integration: starting with aligning their legal systems with the EU acquis—over 80,000 pages of legislative and regulatory requirements—to politically strengthening democratic institutions and ensuring judicial independence. Economically, both candidates must establish competitive markets able to integrate and further operate in the EU’s single market.

The prospects of joining, in the case of Ukraine, are overshadowed by the ongoing war: the destruction of infrastructure, massive population displacement, and huge war expenditures represent major issues that the country has to overcome. Rebuilding the economy in the post-war period to meet EU benchmarks will require extraordinary effort on behalf of the candidate and massive international support. On the other side of the Dniester River, Moldova, already struggling with its fragile economy, was also hit by the neighbouring war and soaring gas prices.

Politically, both nations must fight against deep-rooted corruption, strengthen democratic institutions, build transparency in legal systems, and advance governance reforms. Ukraine has witnessed improvements in anti-corruption measures and enhanced political stability; the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, made the fight against corruption one of the priorities of her mandate, yet both countries have a long way ahead. The criteria to be met are the same as in the case of other candidates, although the circumstances of this potential enlargement are truly unique.

Never before has a country applied for EU membership while a full-scale war raged within its borders. Incorporating a country still at war, or recovering from a brutal conflict with large parts of its territory of yet unknown fate, poses a significant challenge for the EU. The extraordinary circumstances pose extraordinary questions. Will Ukraine manage to recover its internationally recognized territory, leading to full territorial integration? What happens in case it does not? A question of territorial nature similarly haunts Moldova’s accession process. Will the country join the Union with or without the breakaway region of Transnistria? Moldova, while not involved in a direct war, faces multifaceted hybrid threats and potential election interference from Russia. Major security concerns affect not only the accession progress of the two candidates but also the broader question of regional stability.

The prospect of the EU expanding to include Ukraine, a large country at war with a neighbor possessing nuclear arms, provokes heated debates within the Union. The potential for enlargement was under threat years before, given the rise of extreme-right and populist parties in the European Parliament. Another unknown adds to the already complicated equation of accession: even if the two countries are potentially ready to join, de facto enlargement depends on the political will from within the EU. Based on the experience of the Western Balkans, membership can easily be halted by politicization from within the bloc, as in the case of Northern Macedonia.

Enlargement can become an apple of discord between the existing members and candidate countries, ending up in the trap of “bilateralisation.” Hungary has its own reservations toward the accession of Ukraine, citing dissatisfaction with how Ukraine approaches the Hungarian minority on its territory. Poland, in turn, has conditioned Ukrainian membership on resolving the controversial question of the Volhynia massacre. In response, Ukrainian President Zelensky accused both claims of politicization. Once again, the process of joining becomes a complicated choreography between internal reforms, the collective willingness of the Union, and the individual stances of its members to welcome new countries onboard.

Adding fuel to the fire, Russia’s lingering influence looms large over Ukraine and Moldova’s aspirations to join the European Union. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine galvanized EU unity and accelerated the process for Kyiv’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, it has placed a huge political strain on the country. For Moldova, Russia’s influence takes a more “low-key,” yet still poisonous manifestation: for more than three decades, the frozen conflict in the breakaway region of Transnistria has threatened Moldova’s territorial integrity and put the brakes on its European aspirations. Political proxies, hybrid warfare tactics, and the use of energy as a geopolitical weapon threaten the already fragile democratic systems.

Despite the numerous problems, Ukraine and Moldova have set a target date of 2030 for EU accession. This ambitious aim is backed up by the unusual progress from application to the start of membership negotiations, moving faster than other countries in the queue. And even though the actual timeline for full membership remains blurry, Moldova and Ukraine should seize the moment and keep up with the current pace, as any delay could make it harder to restart negotiations, as seen in the example of the Western Balkans.

The EU must continue to provide support to both nations, offering them a helping hand to meet accession criteria and withstand destabilizing Russian influence. The candidates should not lose this historic opportunity while making sustained efforts to advance democratic reforms. While full membership is still a distant goal, requiring significant political will from all parties involved, major benefits could be reaped even in the pre-accession phases. Ultimately, Ukraine and Moldova’s path to the EU is not just about their future, but about the EU’s future as well. A united and resolute Europe must rise to this challenge, just as Ukraine and Moldova do daily.