The century we live in is marked by the magnificent rise of China. The economic structure and capability of China are developing day by day. Also, countries’ relations and influence levels by China are increasing. To understand the dynamics of the 21st century, we must know the structure of the past century. Understanding China’s largest project, the Belt and Road Initiative, will be revealing for the dynamics to come. Analyzing this project from the perspective of the United States will enable us to figure out the comparative moves of the world powers.

The United States has been the leader of the world globally after World War II, which led to the establishment of the Liberal order. During the Cold War, the world had a bipolar system balanced by the United States and the Soviet Union. Especially after the Cold War, the United States took a head international economic and political leadership. In those years, although China had a similar regime to the Soviet Union, they didn’t stand with each other. China was neutral and away from Cold War tension in general. At first, the reason for this was the ideological differences with the Soviet Union. After the 1970s, China began to establish closer relations with the West for its own interests. During that period, China did not have enough economic power and growth to compete with the United States. Since 1979, China has attached importance to external trade, investment and it implements free market reforms. In this way, China has been the world’s fastest-growing economy with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This fast growth was described by World Bank as ‘’the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history’’. It is significant to understand the magnitude of the rise of China and its future.

In case China’s great initiative is left unchecked, it may be similar to the US’s post World War II hegemony. The US must ensure that China is willing to implement a massive strategic movement. In the project, it is clear that the aim is to advance China’s domestic economic growth. However, if we look at the project from different perspectives, opinions should be made especially from the point of view of the US. The main reason for this is that the biggest rival of the US is China. Second, the attempt could weaken the US’s alliances and change the international order in favor of China. This project covers alternative land and sea routes, it is much wider and more wiser than the military control areas of the US. These routes may provide both economic growth and new alliances. If China’s sphere of influence encompasses Eurasia, it is nearly impossible to be the biggest country for the US.

According to statistics in 2023, around 150 countries have registered with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2013. Even though it is not a formal member of the BRI, the United States will probably gain in certain ways if the BRI develops infrastructure that boosts global economic growth. Improved infrastructure helps reduce transportation and communication costs. This is a positive development for the US with the number of foreign companies operating in BRI countries being high. However, there are more negative aspects than positives for the US. As BRI projects have Chinese managers and a specific government plan, Chinese companies and investments will dominate the region. Although the Chinese government emphasizes that any company can undertake BRI projects, the companies that win the contract are mostly Chinese companies. Countries that will borrow due to BRI projects may become more dependent on China. Moreover, China cares and develops fintech companies. It making strong preparations for the expansion of fintech to other countries. In a nutshell, It seems possible for China to guarantee world leadership as long as the project continues.

It is necessary to examine many regions until 2023 in order to analyze what the US has done in the face of this initiative. Firstly, the US increased its power by establishing new alliances in Asia with the Indo-Pacific Strategy. The US strengthened its links with Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. At the same time, the United States supported India’s leadership in the region. In this way, it was aimed to establish links between the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic and to exclude China. Secondly, “The Clean Network” project was established. It was emphasized that the project will ensure data privacy, security, human rights and cooperative principles. “We call on all freedom-loving nations and companies to join the Clean Network.” Pompeo said. The Clean Network helped consolidate the US’s digital hegemony. If we talk about the US under Biden’s administration recently, we can see that Biden has always underlined the importance of the struggle against China. However, we cannot be sure that effective measures are taken against China. Biden is also trying to strike a balance by trying to cooperate with China. In addition, there are ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, breakings in Africa and food crisis happening in the world. For these reasons, it is difficult for the US to focus totally on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

In summary, China has the opportunity to re-establish the world’s largest economic market and to eliminate dollar-based markets. The dream of the “China-based world” is not far away with this project. If the US doesn’t want to suffer an attack like its own project, the Marshall Plan (1948), it needs to take effective measures. The Marshall Plan may seem rather small if the project with the largest impact in the 21st century is successful. On the other hand, the US should continue to try new alliances in the Asian region and allocate active roles to its powerful partner, Japan. The US may have to put pressure on states in the West that are participating in China’s project and offer better offers. It may even have to offer better offers to each country individually. If China dominates the world years later, the United States may attempt to use nuclear weapons to regain power. Road and Belt Initiative seriously threatens the interests of the US and it should be understood that if measures are not taken, Chinese hegemony will be inevitable.

Sources:

McBride J., Berman, N., Chatzky, A. (February 2 , 2023). China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative

Zhao, M. (2021). The Belt and Road Initiative and China–US strategic competition. China İnternational Strategy Review (2021), (3), 248–260. 10.1007/s42533-021-00087-7

Pyatt, G. R. (June 14, 2023). Written Testimony of Geoffrey R. Pyatt “Assessing U.S. Efforts to Counter China’s Coercive Belt and Road Diplomacy”. United States Department of State.
https://www.state.gov/assessing-u-s-efforts-to-counter-chinas-coercive-belt-and-road-diplomacy/

Saha, R. (February 3, 2023). Prioritizing the Indian Ocean in US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/2023/prioritizing-the-indian-ocean-in-us-indo-pacific-strategy/

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