The beginning of the Karabakh issue spans a long period of time. Russia, starting from the 18th  century, continuously sought to use Armenia’s nationalist aspirations to advance its policy of reaching the warm seas. Through the Gulistan and Turkmenchay treaties, many Armenians were resettled in the Caucasus region. Russia aimed to change the ethnic make up of the region and exert influence over the Caucasus by settling Armenians in these areas.

Russia was able to achieve these goals. Armenia’s violent actions in Baku in 1905-1906 quickly spread to Karabakh and surrounding regions. With the support of Russian garrisons, Armenians committed mass killings of many Azerbaijani Turks. The massacres carried out in 1905-1906 allowed Armenia to increase its population and gain political influence in the Caucasus region. During World War I, after the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, Armenians took advantage of the situation to carry out mass killings against Azerbaijani Turks.

They conducted raids on Azerbaijani Turkish villages but were eventually stopped with the assistance of the Ottoman Empire. Armenians settled in the region adopted an aggressive stance towards Azerbaijanis and made territorial claims thanks to Russia’s protection. In 1920, Armenians took control of the “Zangezur” region. After this event, Armenian forces attempted to capture the Karadagh region but were unsuccessful. In 1923, with the support of the Russians, autonomy was granted to the Karabakh region, further complicating the political situation.

Armenians pursued separatist policies in the region, while the USSR openly supported the Armenians. After the collapse of the USSR, Armenian separatist movements gained momentum. Although the decision of the Azerbaijani Parliament to remove the “Autonomous Status of Karabakh” was rescinded, Armenians continued their separatist activities. With the support of Russia, attempts to invade Azerbaijani territories and commit atrocities against the civilian population increased. During this period, Armenians perpetrated the “Khojaly Massacre” against Azerbaijanis. In this massacre, Armenians directly targeted the civilian population.

Decisions taken by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations Security Council during that time were not adhered to by Armenia, and there were no compelling measures taken to enforce compliance. Trust in the United Nations and the OSCE has diminished. It has become evident that this conflict cannot be resolved through peaceful means.

When we look at the reasons claimed by Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Karabakh region, Armenians assert that they have a significant population in Karabakh and, therefore, the right to self-determination. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, claims Karabakh as part of its territory both legally and historically. Azerbaijan also argues that the ethnic composition in this region has been intentionally altered by Russia and Armenia, making territorial claims invalid.

Despite numerous attempts to reach agreements on the Karabakh issue in 1990 and beyond, differing positions of the states, Armenia’s failure to fulfill treaty obligations, and its continued occupation of territories have made reaching agreements difficult. After Heydar Aliyev came to power in 1993, more efforts were made to address the Karabakh issue, and attempts were made to find a solution to the Karabakh problem with Armenia.

However, despite several agreements being put on the table, a positive resolution to the Karabakh issue could not be reached. Ilham Aliyev, who became the country’s president after Heydar Aliyev, followed in his father’s footsteps regarding the Karabakh issue. He initially sought peaceful solutions but also made statements indicating that if peaceful means did not yield results, the issue would be resolved through military means. Looking at more recent events in the Karabakh issue, in 2016 and 2020, there were military provocations by Armenians, border violations, and attacks on civilians and the military.

The  primary reason Armenia was emboldened to carry out these provocations in 2016 and 2020 was the support of the Russian Federation. This support made Armenia feel secure. However, the courage of the Azerbaijani army and its significant achievements forced the Armenian government to step back. As a result, on November 10, 2020, an armistice agreement was signed between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, ending the war. As of September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan has initiated an anti-terrorism operation in the  Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The goal here is to establish constitutional order, and an integration process has begun in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Armenians living in the Karabakh region will have complete freedom to decide whether they want to live in Karabakh or not. In addressing the Nagorno-Karabakh issue more broadly, it’s evident that Armenians claim a territorial right in the region. They support these territorial claims with the following arguments: the majority Armenian population in the region and the assertion that this population has the right to self-determination. However, it’s argued that these demographic data have been intentionally altered by the Armenian state.

Acts of persecution and mass killings against Azerbaijanis in the region have reduced the Azerbaijani population. Armenians have relocated Armenians from different regions to Nagorno-Karabakh. Due to these reasons, Armenia has acted in violation of the 1949 Geneva Conventions. Additionally, there are examples of genocide in the region (such as the Khojaly Massacre). In addition to these crimes, Armenia’s behavior has violated international law, and it does not have a legitimate claim in the region. The major powers supporting Armenia have not been able to take serious measures to stop Armenia’s violations. Despite these events, Azerbaijan continues to resist and assert its rights in Nagorno-Karabakh.