Understanding Putin's Realism

What are Russia’s security concerns and Ukraine’s sovereignty borders in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Written By; Ömer Faruk Kara – Sep 24, 2023

Since 24 February 2022, many studies have been conducted on the Russia-Ukraine war, which has seriously affected the agenda of international relations. The scope of these studies is quite broad. Researchers from many fields, such as international law, NATO, mainstream theories, have found something to analyse in this war. However, in my opinion, there has been very little criticism of Western countries compared to the criticism of Putin’s actions and authoritarian rule. The main purpose of this paper is to fill this gap and to explain how Putin’s realist behaviour can be better understood.

First of all, it is important to remember how deep and longstanding the causes of this war are. Understanding this fact will enable us as researchers to make more accurate analyses. The Russian Federation, and especially the Putin administration, does not show the expected respect to the former Soviet countries that have declared their independence, even though many years have passed. Putin said that Poland’s western lands were a gift from Joseph Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, and added: “Thanks to the Soviet Union, thanks to Stalin’s approach, Poland received important lands in the West, lands from Germany. The Western lands of today’s Poland are Stalin’s gift to the Poles” This quote clearly showing his mentality. NATO’s expansionist ambitions in the region pose a serious threat to Putin. At this point, most research focuses on Putin’s overly authoritarian behaviour and ignores his support from the country’s elite. Although Russia has been severely damaged economically by Western sanctions, the damage has been to the Russian people rather than to powerful Russian groups. Putin and his supporters, Russian elites, businessmen and autocrats, are still in power. Many of these elites have made it very clear in their statements that Ukraine’s NATO membership would be the last straw for Russia. Likewise, Putin has long publicly stated that he sees NATO’s expansionist moves into Eastern Europe as a vital threat to Russia. However, the US and Western countries did not take these statements seriously, insisting that Putin was being unreasonable.

Although a possible military intervention was difficult to predict in advance, the seriousness of the problem for Russia was known to the whole world. The main criticism that can be levelled at the West at this point is this: The West, and the United States in particular, while claiming to be committed to peace in the region, in fact did not give due importance to Russia’s security concerns. On 17 December, Russia proposed a solution to the escalating situation that included a neutral Ukraine and the withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe to their 1997 deployments. But the United States flatly rejected it. (Mearsheimer et al., 2023). At the same time, no realistic mediation was undertaken. The word “realistic” should be emphasised because Putin is a statesman who has repeatedly shown that he can take the necessary measures to protect his country’s values and ensure its security. The fact that the West has ignored these facts and only expressed Putin’s irrational behaviour has been quite useless in terms of resolving the situation. In my opinion, This war could have been stopped before it started. But as I said, this way was not preferred. In the current situation, Ukraine has clearly suffered significant damage. There are many problems on the agenda, such as serious damage to the country’s infrastructure services, the decrease in the number of people who can be recruited into the army due to increased migration, and so on.

The risk of such damage shows that Ukraine will not accept any solution that does not recognise its independence, and that is the way it should be. In fact, I think that perhaps this war will remind Russia that the era of empire is over. After all, the countries of the region declared their independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and naturally they do not want to become Soviet satellites. It is important to remember that many events that changed the course of history were written in blood. If Ukraine continues this resistance and regains sovereignty over its territory, it will bring about serious changes in world politics. It is precisely at this point that it is vital that American support does not waver. Without strong and stable US support, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to continue its resistance. Next year’s elections will be a crucial factor in determining that support. There is a strong case to be made that Ukraine’s struggle for democracy and independence will not be as valuable to Trump. Whatever the conditions we are talking about, one thing remains unchanged, and that is Russia’s realist outlook, which is pushing the envelope. I think Putin and his delegation have shown that they are willing to risk war to oppose NATO enlargement. In the future, the West needs to pay more attention to this situation in order to create more space for diplomatic manoeuvre.

About Author

Ömer Faruk Kara is a senior student in International Relations at Middle East Technical University. His research fields are mainly Turkish Foreign Policy and European Union. He is actively working as an author for Foreign Analyses Magazine.