This illustration has been created by AI to use in this article only.
he Middle East is a vital crossroads connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe, underscoring its considerable geopolitical significance and
a long history of complex power dynamics. Its strategic location features essential military access points and critical global trade routes, enhancing its role in facilitating international commerce and energy distribution. The region’s natural resource wealth, particularly oil, has attracted various international interests and contributed to competitive interactions among global powers.
Additionally, the diverse political systems, rich cultural identities, and different ethnic groups in the Middle East add complexity to its socio-political landscape. These intertwined factors foster ongoing challenges, encourage external engagement, and influence the global balance of power, making the Middle East a dynamic region that holds considerable importance in international relations today.
The Geopolitical Importance and Complex Structure of the Middle East
The Middle East, located between Asia, Africa, and Europe, has thus served as a convergence point for many countries, being the center of foreign powers, shifting alliances, and conflicts. As a result, the region is one of the most fundamental military access and global trade routes, including the Suez Canal, the Straits of Hormuz, the Straits of Gibraltar, and the Turkish Straits, and it is essential in international migration. Moreover, European powers have fought to colonize territories in the Middle East due to its natural resources, historical significance, and geostrategic location.
In particular, the discovery of oil and energy in the region has driven superpowers and rivalries to exploit the resources, leading to U.S. intervention after WWII through its alliances with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Israel. This is because the U.S.’s military presence was seen as a means of securing its access to oil reserves and strategic interests. At the same time, the Middle East remains an unstable battleground for non-state actors such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, where they actively engage in terrorism and trigger external military interventions and security cooperations.
On the other hand, the region’s complexity is rooted in its historical and political systems, diverse ethnicities, religions, and external powers, all leading to intertwined battles within or between countries, thus encouraging foreign powers to interfere and dominate the region. Religion plays a role in explaining many civil wars in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia Muslims in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which manifests through proxy wars and political conflict.
For example, sectarian identities fight over authority, identity, and rights to achieve political goals in Syria and Iraq. Israel’s complicated ties with its neighboring countries over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, alongside its normalization through the Abraham Accords, have reshaped alliances with the UAE and Bahrain in opposition to Iran, further demonstrating the region’s complex dynamics. Despite its natural resources and strategic location, ongoing wars, authoritarian regimes, and political instability continue to make the Middle East highly vulnerable, thereby attracting external intervention.
The Historical Background of Power Struggles in the Region
The Middle East is a region with a rich history of civilizations, marked by the rise and fall of empires. Due to its location as a crossroads between Asia, Africa, and Europe, it has long been a battleground for empires, conflicts, ideologies, and religions. Conflicts in the Middle East date back to the Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, and Romans, who competed for control of the region and left behind cultural and intellectual legacies. In the 7th century, religion played a critical role in shaping the region’s conflicts. For instance, Islam spurred the rise of Islamic civilization, allowing the Arabs to establish caliphates.
However, the Sunni-Shia division led to hostility, conflicts, and competing ideologies. In more recent history, during the 19th and 20th centuries, the Ottoman Empire dominated the Middle East, implementing organizational, regulatory, and cultural structures that continue to influence the region today. Following World War I, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire marked a transitional period in which Britain and France divided Ottoman lands through the Sykes-Picot Agreement.
Based on arbitrary lines, this division disregarded religious and ethnic realities, leading to future conflicts and the rise of national movements. Similarly, during the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union used the Middle East as a battleground for dominance, supporting different groups to promote their interests. This struggle resulted in proxy wars, such as the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as they competed for geopolitical and economic dominance.
In 2011, the Arab Spring offered hope for democracy and freedom. Unfortunately, the outcome was quite the opposite, as chaos, instability, and civil wars erupted in countries like Yemen and Syria. These internal struggles attracted regional and international intervention, further destabilizing the region. Despite these challenges, the Middle East has demonstrated resilience, maintaining its cultural and historical significance while striving for stability and peace.
Definition of the Concept of “Boss” and What This Concept Means for the Middle East
The word “boss” typically refers to someone with authority or leadership in a workplace setting. However, it can also describe a person who controls political, economic, or social situations. In the Middle East, the concept of a “boss” takes many forms, reflecting the region’s social, political, and economic dynamics. For instance, many Middle Eastern countries are governed by authoritarian regimes, where leaders dominate political affairs and make decisions with little regard for the population.
The Middle East is a vital crossroads connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe, underscoring its considerable geopolitical significance and a long history of complex power dynamics. Its strategic location features essential military access points and critical global trade routes, enhancing its role in facilitating international commerce and energy distribution. The region’s natural resource wealth, particularly oil, has attracted various international interests and contributed to competitive interactions among global powers.
Additionally, the diverse political systems, rich cultural identities, and different ethnic groups in the Middle East add complexity to its socio-political landscape. These intertwined factors foster ongoing challenges, encourage external engagement, and influence the global balance of power, making the Middle East a dynamic region that holds considerable importance in international relations today.
The Geopolitical Importance and Complex Structure of the Middle East
The Middle East, located between Asia, Africa, and Europe, has thus served as a convergence point for many countries, being the center of foreign powers, shifting alliances, and conflicts. As a result, the region is one of the most fundamental military access and global trade routes, including the Suez Canal, the Straits of Hormuz, the Straits of Gibraltar, and the Turkish Straits, and it is essential in international migration. Moreover, European powers have fought to colonize territories in the Middle East due to its natural resources, historical significance, and geostrategic location.
In particular, the discovery of oil and energy in the region has driven superpowers and rivalries to exploit the resources, leading to U.S. intervention after WWII through its alliances with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Israel. This is because the U.S.’s military presence was seen as a means of securing its access to oil reserves and strategic interests. At the same time, the Middle East remains an unstable battleground for non-state actors such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, where they actively engage in terrorism and trigger external military interventions and security cooperations.
On the other hand, the region’s complexity is rooted in its historical and political systems, diverse ethnicities, religions, and external powers, all leading to intertwined battles within or between countries, thus encouraging foreign powers to interfere and dominate the region. Religion plays a role in explaining many civil wars in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia Muslims in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which manifests through proxy wars and political conflict.
For example, sectarian identities fight over authority, identity, and rights to achieve political goals in Syria and Iraq. Israel’s complicated ties with its neighboring countries over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, alongside its normalization through the Abraham Accords, have reshaped alliances with the UAE and Bahrain in opposition to Iran, further demonstrating the region’s complex dynamics. Despite its natural resources and strategic location, ongoing wars, authoritarian regimes, and political instability continue to make the Middle East highly vulnerable, thereby attracting external intervention.
The Historical Background of Power Struggles in the Region
The Middle East is a region with a rich history of civilizations, marked by the rise and fall of empires. Due to its location as a crossroads between Asia, Africa, and Europe, it has long been a battleground for empires, conflicts, ideologies, and religions. Conflicts in the Middle East date back to the Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, and Romans, who competed for control of the region and left behind cultural and intellectual legacies. In the 7th century, religion played a critical role in shaping the region’s conflicts. For instance, Islam spurred the rise of Islamic civilization, allowing the Arabs to establish caliphates.
However, the Sunni-Shia division led to hostility, conflicts, and competing ideologies. In more recent history, during the 19th and 20th centuries, the Ottoman Empire dominated the Middle East, implementing organizational, regulatory, and cultural structures that continue to influence the region today. Following World War I, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire marked a transitional period in which Britain and France divided Ottoman lands through the Sykes-Picot Agreement.
Based on arbitrary lines, this division disregarded religious and ethnic realities, leading to future conflicts and the rise of national movements. Similarly, during the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union used the Middle East as a battleground for dominance, supporting different groups to promote their interests. This struggle resulted in proxy wars, such as the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as they competed for geopolitical and economic dominance.
In 2011, the Arab Spring offered hope for democracy and freedom. Unfortunately, the outcome was quite the opposite, as chaos, instability, and civil wars erupted in countries like Yemen and Syria. These internal struggles attracted regional and international intervention, further destabilizing the region. Despite these challenges, the Middle East has demonstrated resilience, maintaining its cultural and historical significance while striving for stability and peace.
Definition of the Concept of “Boss” and What This Concept Means for the Middle East
The word “boss” typically refers to someone with authority or leadership in a workplace setting. However, it can also describe a person who controls political, economic, or social situations. In the Middle East, the concept of a “boss” takes many forms, reflecting the region’s social, political, and economic dynamics. For instance, many Middle Eastern countries are governed by authoritarian regimes, where leaders dominate political affairs and make decisions with little regard for the population.
Leaders such as Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt are considered “bosses” because they exert significant control over their governments and populations. One reason for the stability of authoritarian rule in the Middle East is the use of state-controlled natural resources, known as rents. These rents, such as income from oil and gas, are often used to support oppressive governments, ensuring that opposition to the regime is suppressed.
As a result, economic bosses in the region also wield significant influence, particularly in countries like Qatar and the UAE, where leaders shape national growth policies. Nevertheless, these bosses are essential for attracting foreign investments and fostering global economic collaborations, significantly impacting the financial environment of the region. Additionally, social norms in the Middle East reflect a patriarchal structure, where men traditionally assume roles of authority. Thus, the concept of a “boss” in the region is multifaceted, encompassing political, economic, and social dimensions.
Saudi Arabia’s Relations with the U.S. and Strategic Alliance in the Region
Saudi Arabia and the U.S. shared a long strategic alliance beginning in World War II. Since then, Saudi-U.S. relations have continued to develop in ways that serve the interests of both countries, such as military cooperation, regional stability, and energy security. Specifically, Saudi Arabia has focused on building strong regional and global partnerships. In exchange for ensuring a continuous oil flow to the U.S., Saudi Arabia receives security guarantees and weapons, with the U.S. also working to limit Iran’s regional influence.
Complex issues, such as the conflict in Yemen and human rights concerns, have complicated this partnership. Despite these challenges, both countries remain united in their efforts to counter Iran and maintain regional stability. Additionally, normalizing diplomatic ties with Israel has become a significant priority for Saudi Arabia. As a result, the United States must prioritize safeguarding and advancing Saudi Arabia’s interests as a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
Its Nuclear Program and Relations with the West
Iran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of international concern in its interactions with the West. According to Iranian officials, the program is solely for peaceful and civilian purposes, such as medical research and energy production, and they deny any ambitions to develop nuclear weaponry. However, the U.S., Israel, and the E.U. argue that Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons development. In 2015, the Iran nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), resulted in a landmark agreement signed between Iran and major powers, including the P5+1: the U.S., UK, France, China, Germany, and Russia.
The terms of the deal required Iran to impose restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Nevertheless, in 2018, the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated sanctions, citing Iran’s perceived failure to safeguard U.S. national security interests. Following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran resumed its nuclear activities, including research and development, sparking widespread international concern regarding its potential pursuit of nuclear weapons. This has notably increased tensions with Israel, which perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and actively seeks measures to mitigate this risk.
Moreover, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia further complicates the regional landscape, as both countries compete for leadership within Islam and strive for regional dominance. The advancement of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, therefore, intensifies these rivalries, prompting Saudi Arabia to confront the potential for an arms race. In response, the West has employed various strategies, including negotiations, sanctions, and military deterrence, to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, the deep-seated mistrust between Iran and Western countries leaves the future of their relationship ambiguous.
NATO membership and balanced relations with the West
Türkiye has been a significant member of NATO since 1952, serving as a strategic bridge between the Middle East and Europe. Despite challenges in its relations with Western nations, Türkiye remains an essential ally within the alliance. For example, it hosts NATO’s Allied Land Command headquarters and critical airbases like Incirlik and Konya. Moreover, Türkiye is crucial in joint defense initiatives, peacekeeping missions, and counterterrorism operations.
However, Turkish foreign policy is characterized by efforts to strengthen ties with Russia and China, raising concerns among NATO allies. For instance, acquiring the Russian S-400 missile defense system represents a significant departure from NATO protocols. Additionally, Türkiye’s military interventions in Syria and Iraq, along with stalled discussions regarding E.U. accession, have contributed to tensions with Western partners. Nevertheless, Türkiye remains a vital player in NATO. By leveraging its geopolitical position, Türkiye seeks to balance its relationships between the Middle East and the West while maintaining its autonomy in global affairs.
Its Recently Developing Diplomatic Relations with the Arab Countries in the Middle East
Israel has made substantial progress in establishing diplomatic relations with various Arab nations, significantly altering the regional landscape. For instance, it has forged strong partnerships with Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE, working together on security policies and enhancing economic ties. The signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020 marked a transformative development, normalizing relations with the UAE, Sudan, Morocco, and Bahrain. These agreements reflect a shared commitment to technological advancement, countering Iranian influence, and promoting economic and security cooperation, leading to a notable reconfiguration of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Trade, security cooperation, and initiatives aimed at regional stability are thriving despite longstanding political challenges. Although Saudi Arabia has yet to formalize its relations with Israel, secret meetings between officials suggest that new opportunities for collaboration are being explored. Nonetheless, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant hurdle for many Arab countries, which may impede future diplomatic efforts. As a result, the path toward deeper regional integration will likely face ongoing challenges.
How the Arab Spring Changed the Balance of Power in the Region
The Arab Spring markedly transformed the power dynamics of the Middle East, propelled by regional and international engagement. As a result of this movement, long-established regimes were overthrown, creating a notable power vacuum and initiating civil conflicts that fundamentally reshaped the region. For instance, the elimination of leaders in Yemen, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia not only diminished the authority of existing governments but also paved the way for the emergence of new political forces, including influential Islamist movements and non-state actors such as ISIS.
In some cases, like Syria, uprisings escalated into devastating civil wars, attracting intervention from regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, and Türkiye, each backing opposing factions to further their respective interests. Thus, the stability and security of the Middle East, along with the longevity of its regimes, became increasingly dependent on shifting alliances. For example, in Syria, the government’s reliance on Russian intervention substantially altered the balance of power in its favor.
Moreover, this upheaval provided fertile ground for ISIS to expand its territory and influence, eliciting military responses from both regional and international actors. Ultimately, the Arab Spring fragmented power structures throughout the region, intensified rivalries, and shifted alliances, leaving a lasting legacy of political instability and a complex geopolitical landscape that continues to evolve.
The U.S.’s Middle East Policies and the Changes Experienced in Recent Years
In recent years, the United States has significantly reshaped its policy in the Middle East, transitioning from costly military interventions to a more strategic and diplomatic framework. In response to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. administrations have shifted their focus toward diplomacy, counterterrorism, and reinforcing strong alliances while reducing direct military involvement. Nevertheless, the U.S. maintains its influence through arms sales and partnerships with key allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, ensuring continued engagement in the Persian Gulf region.
At the same time, this strategy seeks a fair resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and aims to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities. However, tensions regarding Saudi human rights practices in Yemen have complicated U.S.-Saudi relations. Additionally, the U.S. has made significant efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab nations through the Abraham Accords, fostering regional peace and stability. Altogether, these developments serve strategic and security interests by strengthening cooperation among the U.S. and its regional allies and establishing a more hopeful geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Russia’s Intervention in the Syrian Civil War and Its Increasing Influence in the Region
In 2015, Russia undertook a significant intervention in the Syrian Civil War, effectively protecting Bashar al-Assad from a potential collapse. This action established Russia as a major player in Middle Eastern geopolitics and expanded its influence by safeguarding vital regional interests. Through military support and airstrikes, Russia played a crucial role in helping the Assad regime reclaim lost territories and restore its power. Moreover, the Syrian government’s decision to grant Russia long-term access to an airbase in Latakia and a naval base in Tartous marked a pivotal development. These agreements allowed Russia to position itself as a dominant force in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.
In addition, the intervention strengthened Russia’s diplomatic relations with Iran and improved ties with regional powers such as Israel and Türkiye, despite their differing interests in the Syrian conflict. By engaging with multiple factions, Russia has positioned itself as both a military power and a mediator, enhancing its credibility in regional diplomacy and challenging the longstanding influence of the U.S. in the Middle East. Ultimately, Russia’s intervention in Syria has profoundly reshaped the power dynamics in the region and demonstrates its commitment to playing an active role in shaping the future of the Middle East.
China’s BRI
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, formerly known as the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, represents one of the most ambitious economic and foreign policy endeavors. This initiative aims to bolster China’s economic leadership through a comprehensive infrastructure development program, enhancing its political influence across neighboring regions. The significance of this initiative lies in the strategic locations of these regions along essential trade routes connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe.
China has invested considerably in railways, ports, energy facilities, and special economic zones in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Oman. Additionally, Chinese enterprises have led renewable energy projects and developed smart cities, reinforcing relationships with regional powers and presenting a notable counter to Western influence. A critical factor in China’s success is its non-interference approach to domestic politics, which has appealed to many Middle Eastern countries. By avoiding engagement in regional conflicts, China is not only emerging as a significant power but also reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through trade initiatives, infrastructure investments, and strategic partnerships.
An Assessment of Who Could be Considered a “Boss” in the Middle East
In the Middle East, a “boss” clearly denotes a leader or power with substantial influence over political, economic, or military affairs, thereby critically shaping regional dynamics and outcomes. Among these powers, Saudi Arabia firmly establishes itself in this role through its vast oil wealth, leadership in OPEC, and expanding political influence, particularly with transformative initiatives like Vision 2030 and active involvement in regional conflicts. Meanwhile, Iran asserts its considerable power by backing militant groups such as Hezbollah and spreading its influence through a robust network of proxies across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
In addition, Türkiye projects its authority through military interventions in Syria and Libya while strategically balancing its position within NATO and maintaining relations with Russia. Moreover, Israel wields significant influence owing to its strong military capabilities, advanced intelligence operations, and practical normalization efforts with Arab states through the Abraham Accords. At the same time, external powers such as the U.S. and Russia act as geopolitical “bosses” through military alliances, arms sales, and active involvement in regional conflicts. Ultimately, these actors, whether state or non-state, compete and collaborate, thus fundamentally shaping the dynamic power landscape of the Middle East.
What Does it Mean to be a “Boss” in the Middle East, and is it Sustainable?
To be a “boss” means wielding influence in the Middle East, encompassing significant authority over the region’s political, economic, and military affairs, thus fundamentally shaping its trajectory while asserting control over rivals. This role also requires the strategic management of essential resources, particularly oil wealth in Saudi Arabia, along with the effective use of military power and proxy networks, such as those deployed by Iran and Türkiye, to expand one’s influence.
Additionally, being a boss requires navigating complex alliances and carefully balancing relationships with global powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China. At the same time, internal challenges, such as economic reform and political opposition, must be addressed. However, maintaining this status is complicated by the region’s inherent volatility, where shifting alliances, sectarian tensions, and evolving geopolitical interests can rapidly affect long-term stability.
Furthermore, external factors, such as global energy transitions and international interventions, add complexity to the situation. Therefore, it is essential to demonstrate adaptability, possess strategic foresight, and effectively manage competing interests within this dynamic landscape to sustain such influence.
Written By: Berk Tuttup
Written By: Chris Gowe
Written By: William Cano
Written By: Suruthi Lenin
Leaders such as Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt are considered “bosses” because they exert significant control over their governments and populations. One reason for the stability of authoritarian rule in the Middle East is the use of state-controlled natural resources, known as rents. These rents, such as income from oil and gas, are often used to support oppressive governments, ensuring that opposition to the regime is suppressed.
As a result, economic bosses in the region also wield significant influence, particularly in countries like Qatar and the UAE, where leaders shape national growth policies. Nevertheless, these bosses are essential for attracting foreign investments and fostering global economic collaborations, significantly impacting the financial environment of the region. Additionally, social norms in the Middle East reflect a patriarchal structure, where men traditionally assume roles of authority. Thus, the concept of a “boss” in the region is multifaceted, encompassing political, economic, and social dimensions.
Saudi Arabia’s Relations with the U.S. and Strategic Alliance in the Region
Saudi Arabia and the U.S. shared a long strategic alliance beginning in World War II. Since then, Saudi-U.S. relations have continued to develop in ways that serve the interests of both countries, such as military cooperation, regional stability, and energy security. Specifically, Saudi Arabia has focused on building strong regional and global partnerships. In exchange for ensuring a continuous oil flow to the U.S., Saudi Arabia receives security guarantees and weapons, with the U.S. also working to limit Iran’s regional influence.
Complex issues, such as the conflict in Yemen and human rights concerns, have complicated this partnership. Despite these challenges, both countries remain united in their efforts to counter Iran and maintain regional stability. Additionally, normalizing diplomatic ties with Israel has become a significant priority for Saudi Arabia. As a result, the United States must prioritize safeguarding and advancing Saudi Arabia’s interests as a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
Its Nuclear Program and Relations with the West
Iran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of international concern in its interactions with the West. According to Iranian officials, the program is solely for peaceful and civilian purposes, such as medical research and energy production, and they deny any ambitions to develop nuclear weaponry. However, the U.S., Israel, and the E.U. argue that Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons development. In 2015, the Iran nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), resulted in a landmark agreement signed between Iran and major powers, including the P5+1: the U.S., UK, France, China, Germany, and Russia.
The terms of the deal required Iran to impose restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Nevertheless, in 2018, the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated sanctions, citing Iran’s perceived failure to safeguard U.S. national security interests. Following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran resumed its nuclear activities, including research and development, sparking widespread international concern regarding its potential pursuit of nuclear weapons. This has notably increased tensions with Israel, which perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and actively seeks measures to mitigate this risk.
Moreover, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia further complicates the regional landscape, as both countries compete for leadership within Islam and strive for regional dominance. The advancement of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, therefore, intensifies these rivalries, prompting Saudi Arabia to confront the potential for an arms race. In response, the West has employed various strategies, including negotiations, sanctions, and military deterrence, to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, the deep-seated mistrust between Iran and Western countries leaves the future of their relationship ambiguous.
NATO membership and balanced relations with the West
Türkiye has been a significant member of NATO since 1952, serving as a strategic bridge between the Middle East and Europe. Despite challenges in its relations with Western nations, Türkiye remains an essential ally within the alliance. For example, it hosts NATO’s Allied Land Command headquarters and critical airbases like Incirlik and Konya. Moreover, Türkiye is crucial in joint defense initiatives, peacekeeping missions, and counterterrorism operations.
However, Turkish foreign policy is characterized by efforts to strengthen ties with Russia and China, raising concerns among NATO allies. For instance, acquiring the Russian S-400 missile defense system represents a significant departure from NATO protocols. Additionally, Türkiye’s military interventions in Syria and Iraq, along with stalled discussions regarding E.U. accession, have contributed to tensions with Western partners. Nevertheless, Türkiye remains a vital player in NATO. By leveraging its geopolitical position, Türkiye seeks to balance its relationships between the Middle East and the West while maintaining its autonomy in global affairs.
Its Recently Developing Diplomatic Relations with the Arab Countries in the Middle East
Israel has made substantial progress in establishing diplomatic relations with various Arab nations, significantly altering the regional landscape. For instance, it has forged strong partnerships with Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE, working together on security policies and enhancing economic ties. The signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020 marked a transformative development, normalizing relations with the UAE, Sudan, Morocco, and Bahrain. These agreements reflect a shared commitment to technological advancement, countering Iranian influence, and promoting economic and security cooperation, leading to a notable reconfiguration of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Trade, security cooperation, and initiatives aimed at regional stability are thriving despite longstanding political challenges. Although Saudi Arabia has yet to formalize its relations with Israel, secret meetings between officials suggest that new opportunities for collaboration are being explored. Nonetheless, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant hurdle for many Arab countries, which may impede future diplomatic efforts. As a result, the path toward deeper regional integration will likely face ongoing challenges.
How the Arab Spring Changed the Balance of Power in the Region
The Arab Spring markedly transformed the power dynamics of the Middle East, propelled by regional and international engagement. As a result of this movement, long-established regimes were overthrown, creating a notable power vacuum and initiating civil conflicts that fundamentally reshaped the region. For instance, the elimination of leaders in Yemen, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia not only diminished the authority of existing governments but also paved the way for the emergence of new political forces, including influential Islamist movements and non-state actors such as ISIS.
In some cases, like Syria, uprisings escalated into devastating civil wars, attracting intervention from regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, and Türkiye, each backing opposing factions to further their respective interests. Thus, the stability and security of the Middle East, along with the longevity of its regimes, became increasingly dependent on shifting alliances. For example, in Syria, the government’s reliance on Russian intervention substantially altered the balance of power in its favor.
Moreover, this upheaval provided fertile ground for ISIS to expand its territory and influence, eliciting military responses from both regional and international actors. Ultimately, the Arab Spring fragmented power structures throughout the region, intensified rivalries, and shifted alliances, leaving a lasting legacy of political instability and a complex geopolitical landscape that continues to evolve.
The U.S.’s Middle East Policies and the Changes Experienced in Recent Years
In recent years, the United States has significantly reshaped its policy in the Middle East, transitioning from costly military interventions to a more strategic and diplomatic framework. In response to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. administrations have shifted their focus toward diplomacy, counterterrorism, and reinforcing strong alliances while reducing direct military involvement. Nevertheless, the U.S. maintains its influence through arms sales and partnerships with key allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, ensuring continued engagement in the Persian Gulf region.
At the same time, this strategy seeks a fair resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and aims to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities. However, tensions regarding Saudi human rights practices in Yemen have complicated U.S.-Saudi relations. Additionally, the U.S. has made significant efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab nations through the Abraham Accords, fostering regional peace and stability. Altogether, these developments serve strategic and security interests by strengthening cooperation among the U.S. and its regional allies and establishing a more hopeful geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Russia’s Intervention in the Syrian Civil War and Its Increasing Influence in the Region
In 2015, Russia undertook a significant intervention in the Syrian Civil War, effectively protecting Bashar al-Assad from a potential collapse. This action established Russia as a major player in Middle Eastern geopolitics and expanded its influence by safeguarding vital regional interests. Through military support and airstrikes, Russia played a crucial role in helping the Assad regime reclaim lost territories and restore its power. Moreover, the Syrian government’s decision to grant Russia long-term access to an airbase in Latakia and a naval base in Tartous marked a pivotal development. These agreements allowed Russia to position itself as a dominant force in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.
In addition, the intervention strengthened Russia’s diplomatic relations with Iran and improved ties with regional powers such as Israel and Türkiye, despite their differing interests in the Syrian conflict. By engaging with multiple factions, Russia has positioned itself as both a military power and a mediator, enhancing its credibility in regional diplomacy and challenging the longstanding influence of the U.S. in the Middle East. Ultimately, Russia’s intervention in Syria has profoundly reshaped the power dynamics in the region and demonstrates its commitment to playing an active role in shaping the future of the Middle East.
China’s BRI
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, formerly known as the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, represents one of the most ambitious economic and foreign policy endeavors. This initiative aims to bolster China’s economic leadership through a comprehensive infrastructure development program, enhancing its political influence across neighboring regions. The significance of this initiative lies in the strategic locations of these regions along essential trade routes connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe.
China has invested considerably in railways, ports, energy facilities, and special economic zones in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Oman. Additionally, Chinese enterprises have led renewable energy projects and developed smart cities, reinforcing relationships with regional powers and presenting a notable counter to Western influence. A critical factor in China’s success is its non-interference approach to domestic politics, which has appealed to many Middle Eastern countries. By avoiding engagement in regional conflicts, China is not only emerging as a significant power but also reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through trade initiatives, infrastructure investments, and strategic partnerships.
An Assessment of Who Could be Considered a “Boss” in the Middle East
In the Middle East, a “boss” clearly denotes a leader or power with substantial influence over political, economic, or military affairs, thereby critically shaping regional dynamics and outcomes. Among these powers, Saudi Arabia firmly establishes itself in this role through its vast oil wealth, leadership in OPEC, and expanding political influence, particularly with transformative initiatives like Vision 2030 and active involvement in regional conflicts. Meanwhile, Iran asserts its considerable power by backing militant groups such as Hezbollah and spreading its influence through a robust network of proxies across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
In addition, Türkiye projects its authority through military interventions in Syria and Libya while strategically balancing its position within NATO and maintaining relations with Russia. Moreover, Israel wields significant influence owing to its strong military capabilities, advanced intelligence operations, and practical normalization efforts with Arab states through the Abraham Accords. At the same time, external powers such as the U.S. and Russia act as geopolitical “bosses” through military alliances, arms sales, and active involvement in regional conflicts. Ultimately, these actors, whether state or non-state, compete and collaborate, thus fundamentally shaping the dynamic power landscape of the Middle East.
What Does it Mean to be a “Boss” in the Middle East, and is it Sustainable?
To be a “boss” means wielding influence in the Middle East, encompassing significant authority over the region’s political, economic, and military affairs, thus fundamentally shaping its trajectory while asserting control over rivals. This role also requires the strategic management of essential resources, particularly oil wealth in Saudi Arabia, along with the effective use of military power and proxy networks, such as those deployed by Iran and Türkiye, to expand one’s influence.
Additionally, being a boss requires navigating complex alliances and carefully balancing relationships with global powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China. At the same time, internal challenges, such as economic reform and political opposition, must be addressed. However, maintaining this status is complicated by the region’s inherent volatility, where shifting alliances, sectarian tensions, and evolving geopolitical interests can rapidly affect long-term stability.
Furthermore, external factors, such as global energy transitions and international interventions, add complexity to the situation. Therefore, it is essential to demonstrate adaptability, possess strategic foresight, and effectively manage competing interests within this dynamic landscape to sustain such influence.
Jazmine Alzoubi, is a postgraduate from Queen Mary, University of London. Areas of expertise: Diplomacy, International Relations, and Middle Eastern Affairs.
