Published exactly one year and 19 days before the inauguration day of the presidential elections in the US, this paper aims to provide an overview of the pre-election period and to understand Trump’s role in the upcoming elections. It aims to do so by answering the questions: What has changed since the previous presidential elections both internationally and domestically, what are Trump’s promises this time around, what will be the impact of the electoral process on US foreign policy and the political balance of the world? The methodology used in the writing process is a combination of research, mainly academic articles, candidate campaigns, official polls, and public opinion. Since this paper is written to draw a general framework, it does not contain a hard-line conclusion, but it does contain my predictions.

In recent days when the global order is changing rapidly, the presidential elections in the US are of holding crucial importance. It is intriguing to see whether Donald Trump, in recent years a figure who has left his mark on international politics, will come back or not. Given Trump’s promises, his election campaign and the changing aspirations of the US public, it is safe to assess the likelihood of his return. Comparing the 2016 election, the one in which Trump was the winner, with the present campaign’s promises, a few important elements stand out. The first one is the wars that have broken out in the world. One of the most radical claims of Trump is that none of these wars would have happened if the Trump administration had remained in place. Trump claims that one of the purposes of the left wing’s existence is to promote peace and prevent potential conflicts through democracy which they uphold, but it has failed to do so. He describes the Obama administration leaving Afghanistan “with shame instead of pride” as one of the biggest embarrassments in US history and blames the democratic left.

At his rallies in different states, he said that if the elections had not been rigged, the wars between Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas would never have happened under his administration. According to him, the reason for these wars is Biden’s weakness as much as his deficiency. Trump’s direct, provocative and almost always controversial foreign policy often brings this claim into question. His prediction that Biden will not be able to participate in the presidential due to old age and health conditions even though he is a still candidate, is another assertive discourse. 

Although some promises like upholding the Second Amendment or implementing tax cuts with a nationalist economic perspective like Hamilton’s doctrine remain the same, we also see major differences in his domestic plan. In the 2016 presidential elections, his domestic promises were mainly focused on using nationalism and sentimentality against some minority groups in the US like Mexicans and Muslims. But now, with the growing woke culture, he is using conservatism and traditionalism to appeal to the American public. One example is the promise to keep men out of women’s sports. His pledge to keep children away from sexist political attitudes, which he describes as transgender insanity, is another example. Another noteworthy promise to prioritize US security in an aggressive international order is to establish an Iron Dome system.

Obstacles to Victory

Despite the optimistic odds of his victory given the current polls and public sentiment, there are serious obstacles to consider. There are two ways of looking at these obstacles, one through the perspective of law and one through the lens of social psychology. The number of lawsuits seeking retribution for the “sins” of his last administration grows every day. As of the publication date of this article, thirty-two lawsuits have been filed against Trump. Some of the lawsuits pose no risk to his presidency, while others are threatening enough to prevent him from becoming president. Trump is against these lawsuits” If I had not been a running for office, no one would have come after me, they are chasing me because they know I will win,” he says. If the results of the investigations are not sanctioned as in the past, only sociological factors stand in the way of his election. Although the overall trend is positive, in the past there has never been a US president who has returned after losing, except Grover Cleveland. 

There is a perception within the Republican party, including politicians who served in the Trump administration before, that people will not give Trump another chance after seeing his mistakes in his previous presidency. The last obstacle to his presidency is the other candidates within the Republican party. Nikki Haley in particular has managed to stand out and challenge Trump. Venture capitalists from Silicon Valley and Wall Street titans are funding Nikki’s campaign. Even if they are Democrats themselves, they don’t want to see Trump back in the race. So they are backing Trump’s most realistic opponent. Against this framework, Trump does not need to fundraise because of his wealth. 

On the other hand, he once used his celebrity persona which he built on the TV show The Apprentice to stand out from the seventeen candidates from his party in the early elections. From then on, his dominant performance in the one-on-one debates with Hillary Clinton increased his popularity among the US public. So it is safe to say that he has a good chance of surviving challenges in the Republican Party.

All things considered, Trump’s comeback is a possible outcome. Particularly in other countries of the globe, people who are overwhelmed by the woke culture that we have seen recently tend to choose right-wing conservative parties, which backs up this outcome. But at the end of the day, a year is a pretty long time in the political arena, so it’s quite tough to predict what will happen, but my predictions are as follows. If Trump overcomes these possible obstacles and everything goes according to Trump’s plan, he will take the oath of office on Inauguration Day. 

I truly believe that if he somehow fails in the process and leaves defeated, he will show up on inauguration day in 2025 whether he is the winner or not. We can expect the possible outcome to be chaos. There will be an army of deniers supporting his claim. I’m going to use the word army because most of the people who support Trump are also Second Amendment supporters, which means that they are armed. Thousands of people with firearms can take to the streets like they did on the 6th of January. Trump’s candidacy represents a crucible moment, not just for the US, but for the world. The outcome may well dictate the course of global political currents, making this election a pivot point on which the future balance of power will rest.