Last week, President Biden hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington D.C. for a formal state dinner. The meeting, a mutual reupholstering between the states and their lengthy alliance prioritized discussions about strengthening military ties to offset the rise and role of both Russia and China (both of whom Japan neighbors and are engaged in long-standing territorial disputes with). Coincidentally, during his term in office, President Trump’s Asian foreign policy also emphasized Chinese containment, in his case escalating into early bouts of trade warfare. 

At their meeting, the leaders discussed over 70 items. While the majority of the docket pertained to military planning, matters of AI, the increase of exchanges in resources, research, and educational opportunities were also discussed. For President Biden, and his supporters and detractors alike, the meeting with Kishida not only symbolically ushers in reinforced ties to Japan but also signals the direction of his Asia-Pacific foreign policy strategy moving forward should he be elected. This framework includes including the Philippines in a potential re-torquing of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. These blossoming developments, and the product of any further state meetings that follow, all hinge on a successful re-election for Biden.   

However, one detail loomed over the state visit: Japan’s flagship steel manufacturer, Nippon Steel Corporation (or simply Nippon Steel). Since last year, Nippon Steel has aggressively pursued a buyout of America’s equivalent United States Steel Corporation (or U.S. Steel) for almost $15bn, a negotiation that Biden was careful with weighing in on. Should Trump be re-elected, such a deal would face even stiffer resistance from the America-first businessman President whose tenure was comprised of identifying and rejecting “bad deals.” Whether or not the Nippon Steel purchase is successful, for Trump who was hard on China and soft on Russia, it stands to reason that Biden’s most recent policy directives would be first to go should he be re-elected.