Change is the only constant—an unchanging truth paradoxically observed by the great sages of the world’s highest cultures. From the Greek philosopher Heraclitus, who noted that “everything flows” (panta rhei), to the revered father of Taoism, Lao Tzu, who viewed change as the natural flow of the universe embodied by the Dao, or “The Way.” This universal truth can be extended to every aspect of reality: from the physical world, where evolution has shaped and reshaped the Earth, to less tangible phenomena like the languages we speak or the cultures to which we belong.

National power is no exception. The Romans once viewed the Mediterranean as Mare Nostrum, and the sun truly never set on the British Empire. Yet, as new discoveries, philosophies, religions, technologies, and even climatic changes arose, these mighty empires—like all those that preceded them—fell. Someday, this will indeed be the fate of the Rome of our era: the USA.

This article is not intended as an American doomsday piece, nor is it meant to stoke the flames of fear in an already politically volatile world. On the contrary, it is meant to offer comfort. National power may wane, but culture and identity can transform into something unexpectedly sanguine. Rome was great, but Renaissance Italy was even greater. The question, however, is this: how do we want to direct that change, and what can history teach us?

From Ancient to Modern

Let us first travel back to the Great Tang (618–907), the Golden Age of Chinese civilization. A successor state to the Sui Dynasty, the Tang built a formidable empire on the foundations of the Sui, which had unified China after centuries of fragmentation. In many ways, Tang Dynasty China resembled our interconnected world today—it was proudly cosmopolitan, globally linked via the Silk Road, and religiously pluralistic, attracting followers of the world’s great faiths—Christianity, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, and Islam—to its famed capital, Chang’an.

The Tang Dynasty thrived and succeeded due to several factors: a strong civil service system based on merit, secure economic alliances, openness to foreign ideas, and effective governance. Over time, however, the Tang’s strengths gradually eroded and became its downfall. According to quantitative historian Peter Turchin, one of the primary causes of societal collapse is elite overproduction. Once an empire overextends itself, competing interests lead to factionalism and increased competition for resources and power. This, in turn, leads to economic strain, heightened instability from political destabilization, and ultimately social unrest.

At the end of the Tang’s decline, power shifted to the Song Dynasty. The Song learned from the Tang’s failures and restructured China’s political and economic systems—elite positions prioritized bureaucratic control over the military, the navy was professionalized to consolidate and centralize power, and the state implemented agrarian reforms to stabilize the economy, including technological innovations in rice cultivation. In sum, what worked for the Old World did not work for the New.

Similar dynamics can be observed in more recent historical contexts. Much like the Tang Dynasty, the British Empire of the 18th century overextended itself both economically and militarily. Centralization of power became exceptionally challenging across multiple continents, particularly as competing elites in the colonies vied for influence. Fast-forward to World War II: as the U.S. rose to become one of two global superpowers, economic strain and the inefficiencies of Britain’s antiquated imperial system culminated in its power decline.

The horrors of the World Wars taught the Western world that traditional imperialism and alliances yield only short-term benefits at unjustifiable costs. As the needs of the world evolved, the center of global power shifted from European imperial powers to a U.S.-led rules-based international order (RBIO) that, at least in theory, promotes global and economic stability through free trade, democratic reforms, and respect for the rule of law. Despite these shifts in global power and the accompanying assaults to national egos, Britain did not vanish from the world stage. It remains one of Europe’s wealthiest states, preserved its stable constitutional monarchy, and even integrated into the European Union for a time. A great deal was lost in shedding its old skin, but transformation, for all of us, was an absolute necessity.

Rising Powers: A Historic Case Study

Global power dynamics, as illustrated above, are never static. Policies evolve, alliances form, and regional and global orders realign. In the current established world order, the West dominates, with the United States at its core. However, as economies modernize and the RBIO begins to show cracks in its foundation, the Global South is poised to emerge as a significant force.

Rising powers take on many forms, but in the context of international relations, they are characterized by rapid economic growth, technological modernization—often in the military sphere—a growing educated class, a young population, and mounting geopolitical ambitions. A notable rising power is South Korea. Just a few decades ago, this East Asian nation was among the poorest in the world. Today, it ranks second on the Henley Passport Index, boasts the world’s 13th largest economy, leads in high-tech industries, and has become one of the globe’s premier entertainment hubs, with K-pop achieving worldwide acclaim. South Korea stands as a shining example of a nation that wields dominance through soft power.

Japan, another Asian giant, has also risen, fallen, and risen again as a remarkable world power. The Japanese Empire’s surrender in 1945 marked the most significant transition in the nation’s history since the Meiji Restoration. Once a military superpower dominating East Asia, Japan’s destiny became inextricably tied to the newly established U.S.-led liberal international order. Japan purged itself of military control, renounced its right to belligerency, and adopted a full democratic model for the first time in its history. Though military power in the region shifted to the United States, Japan—like Song Dynasty China or post-colonial Britain—successfully reinvented itself.

Following its defeat in World War II, Japan reshaped its domestic and foreign policies around three core tenets: Japan’s economic recovery would be the primary objective, necessitating political and economic cooperation with the United States, Japan would limit its use of armed forces in favor of American security guarantees, Japan would adopt a pragmatic foreign policy that emphasized economic diplomacy in global affairs.

In the decades that followed, under Prime Minister Ikeda Hayatō (1960–1964), the Japanese government pursued high-growth policies aimed at doubling the nation’s income within a decade through the “Income Doubling Plan” and raising Japan’s standard of living to match that of developed Western nations. This economic transformation was made possible by several factors. Firstly, the Japanese government limited its defense budget to less than 1% of its GDP, freeing resources for domestic economic investment. As a result, Japan achieved a staggering growth rate of over 10% in the first three years of the decade. By the end of this period, Japan had successfully reestablished itself as one of the wealthiest countries on Earth and a global economic and cultural powerhouse.

Rising Powers: China

The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) embody some, all, or a combination of the characteristics of rising powers. Among them, China has proven itself to be a formidable economic, military, and political rival to the West. Historically known as the “factory of the world,” China has since transformed into a hub of innovation. From its perspective, the West’s near-monopoly on critical technologies poses a significant national security risk, as American mobile operating systems—Google (Android) and Apple (iOS)—dominate 98% of the world’s smartphone market. In October 2024, Huawei launched its own operating system, HarmonyOS, designed to run only domestic apps, a move Chinese media has dubbed a “blue blood system.”

China is also investing heavily in research and development (R&D), an area where the United States has struggled to keep pace. In March 2024, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) pledged to “transform its economy” through a $52 billion investment, marking a 10% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, the United States reduced its R&D budget by 2.7% in the same year. Simply put, winning the technological race positions a nation to win the economic one. A rising power’s technological and economic growth is not inherently a bad thing—after all, competition breeds innovation. The crux of the issue lies in differing political ideologies and conflicting geopolitical interests.

A wealthy, high-tech China under communist governance poses a significant threat to its neighbors and allied liberal democracies. Technological advancements extend far beyond smartphones, with heightened military capabilities potentially emboldening China to invade its neighbor, Taiwan. Furthermore, to maintain its grip on power, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is likely to intensify its use of surveillance technology to suppress any form of opposition or criticism. Simply put, the Chinese government does not operate based on principles. Its decisions are driven purely by pragmatism, and it is poised to export both its technologies and its authoritarian politics to bad actors on the global stage.

Established Powers: The United States 

Now it is time to play devil’s advocate. Foreign affairs aficionados are well aware of the threats China poses to the West, but despite its negative track record, China also acts as a responsible player in other domains. The nation is the world’s largest investor in clean energy, accounting for $890 billion in investment in 2023. That year, the clean energy sector contributed an impressive 40% to its GDP growth. Additionally, China’s infrastructure investments far surpass those of the United States, boasting affordable high-speed rail networks crisscrossing the country and robust metro systems in nearly every major city. While there are undeniable problems with China’s system of governance, its centralized nature allows for swift and efficient execution of plans when directed appropriately.

History, as the saying goes, is written by the winners. The Western world has undeniably made great strides in philosophical contributions, technological development, and the promotion of human rights. However, having dominated the global arena for the past five centuries, the West often glosses over its own structural inefficiencies, historical injustices, and blatant human rights abuses. Consider the RBIO: the U.S. is deeply critical of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine, yet the self-proclaimed leader of the free world dismisses the ICC’s war crimes arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “outrageous.”

Beyond the major news headlines, the U.S. has provided extensive military support to Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s most notorious human rights abusers, in its ongoing conflict with Yemen. Of course, the Houthi rebels, their Iranian backers, and the Saudi government have all committed egregious actions, making the ethics behind their motivations subjective. However, who or what we choose to support or condemn is ultimately a matter of national interest, and the corresponding narratives tend to align with the interests of established powers.

Emerging Powers: India and Brazil

Global power dynamics are shifting, with Brazil and India standing out as notable emerging economic giants. India has experienced remarkable economic growth, with a rate of 7.8% far exceeding the G20 average of 3.4%. Alongside its expanding military, manufacturing, IT, and agricultural sectors, India’s consolidation of political power under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has positioned the nation as an effective counterweight to China in the East Asian region.

Brazil, like India, has also witnessed significant economic growth over the past few decades. Unlike India, however, Brazil does not view China as a geopolitical threat—perhaps because China is not at its doorstep. Instead, President Lula’s government has embraced China’s technological rise, exemplified by Lula’s visit to a Huawei research facility in 2023. Brazil’s emergence as an economic and political mediator holds the potential to ease Sino-U.S. geopolitical tensions in the years to come.

The World Ahead

The world is in for a wild ride as Donald J. Trump prepares to assume office for his second term. For better or worse, the United States has positioned itself as the political and economic glue maintaining order through free-market trade and democratic principles. However, as a Jacksonian, Trump could disrupt this balance. The core philosophy of Jacksonian realism is that the U.S. should remain skeptical of international involvements unless they directly impact American interests.

This approach is far more pragmatic than values-based diplomacy, as decisions are not made based on ideology or ethics but rather on what is perceived to “work.” Consequently, the Trump administration views American support in international alliances as transactional and never guaranteed. Despite his hardline stance on China and plans to implement high tariffs on Chinese imports, Trump considers American military support for Taiwan negotiable. These uncertainties surrounding American security guarantees are echoed in the West, as Trump continues to question the value of the NATO alliance.

What does this mean for the world? In East Asia, we are likely to see shifts in foreign and domestic policies among America’s allies, particularly Japan. Historically, Japan has taken a more pragmatic and neutral approach to foreign affairs to prioritize economic gains. However, it must now assume a leadership role as an anchor for a rules-based diplomatic order in the region. This diplomatic pivot is already evident in Japan’s reinterpretation of Article IX of its constitution, which now allows the country to engage in “collective defense”—defending its allies—rather than solely relying on American military intervention in the region.

In Europe, the war in Ukraine has prompted significant investment in military capabilities. In 2023, Finland became the newest member of the NATO alliance, Germany pledged to make its military the “backbone” of European defense, and Poland is on track to becoming one of Europe’s “military superpowers.”

As we mark 25 years into the new century, there is much to unpack geopolitically—rising populism in the Western world, potential disintegration of European cohesion, the spread of authoritarianism, and deepening culture wars in the U.S. Yet, there is also much to be hopeful about. We have entered a new technological era with the AI revolution, a reinvigorated multipolar world has given the Global South a platform for innovative solutions to the climate crisis, and women’s and LGBTQ rights are improving globally, with Taiwan and Thailand recently becoming the first Asian countries to legalize gay marriage.

Every era in history has its challenges, its triumphs, and its failures, and today is no different. Is the world better than it was 20 years ago? That depends entirely on who you are, where you’re from, and the specific challenges you and your country face. No writer, political pundit, politician, or religious figure has all the answers to improve our lives. I don’t either. So, what’s the point? At the very least, we can start by listening to those who see the world differently from us, making educated decisions about how we expend our energy and resources, and—as cliché as it sounds—doing the right thing.

The truth is, we have little control over how the world moves forward on a macro level. But we can create a meaningful impact on our own small worlds: adopt a pet, volunteer at an elder care home, donate when possible, and prioritize family, friends, and loved ones. The world has always been messy, and it always will be. But it can be a little less messy if we start by cleaning up our own corners first.